2008 US Election Political Betting – Obama Rolls in Latest Polls

BetUS online sportsbook visitors who are following the elections are noticing some patterns in the way the polls are moving in relation to each of the debates so far. Now that the Obama-McCain debate has been concluded in Nashville, we can bring some interesting polling data to you, followed by some data that has even more interest to this particular reporter, based on a debate you probably DIDN'T see.

Here now the odds on the election, as they appear at BetUS Sportsbook:

Winning Party - 2008 Presidential Election

DEMOCRATS (Barack Obama) -450

REPUBLICANS (John McCain) +275

Those numbers from BetUS unquestionably reflect the poll numbers that are coming out of the debates, including Tuesday night's encounter in Nashville, a "town hall" format at Belmont University.

According to an analysis of the electoral math put together at RealClearPolitics.com, Obama is headed toward 264 electoral votes, with McCain at 163 and 111 votes considered to be a "toss up." States in this category include Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri and Florida. If you were to have talked to many of the pundits before either nominee was known, they would have told you that most of those states mentioned were Republican territory. That gives you an idea of the kind of strides Obama has made with his brand of rhetoric.

In a separate analysis in which all states though to be leaning toward either candidate were into their column, and without any toss-up states at all, the website projects a decisive 364-174 electoral vote win for Obama. In Ohio, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri, the RCP Average had Obama ahead by anywhere from .3 to 4.8 points. These were states McCain was counting on showing well in. Out of RCP's "toss-up" group, he may only be able to hold Indiana. The recent Wall Street miscues and subsequent bailout certainly play into a tone of "populism" that Obama has been dying to take to new levels. And McCain just hasn't laid the groundwork to pander as effectively.

Tracking polls offer only mildly encouraging news for the McCain camp. As far as those where the data was compiled through Tuesday night, the Reuters/Zogby/C-Span tracking poll has Obama holding just a two-point lead, at 47%-45%. The poll taken by Hotline, an extremely popular political e-zine, Obama is ahead by only a 45%-44% margin. But Gallup has Obama up by eleven points (52%-41%). And Rasmussen, whose sampling was 3000 likely voters, gives Obama a 51%-45% edge. The CNN poll, which was released before the Nashville debate, had Obama ahead by a 53%-45% gap, which is likely to widen. The RealClearPolitics average was 49%-43.9% in favor of Obama.

The Time magazine poll released on September 29 had Obama with a 60% favorable rating, compared with 54% for McCain. The CBS News poll from October 5 had McCain at 40% favorable, 38% unfavorable. Those numbers are not "favorable" to his campaign, one can be assured.

If I could get in a plug for a moment, after some coverage via Fox News and a third-party presidential debate (also held in Nashville), my own campaign is leading in an informal, independent, non-partisan presidential poll taken at the leading third-party news website, Independent Political Report. Check it out: