posted April 17, 2008 at 14:09 EST in Other Articles

BetUS Presidential Betting Odds

2008 Election Winning Party

DEMOCRATS -165

REPUBLICANS +135

ANY OTHER PARTY +50000 (That's me - see below)

To Win Presidency

BARACK OBAMA +115

JOHN McCAIN +135

HILLARY CLINTON +375

If you love sports betting, why not wager or bet on politics and the election? I have, from the start, been skeptical about the fact that the Democrats (i.e., either Clinton or Obama) are favored over the Republicans (i.e., McCain) in the upcoming election. Maybe part of it is that I expect they'll ultimately find a way to blow it. But as I'll explain, there is a little more to it than that.

McCain, who is +135 at BetUS Sportsbook, happens to be an ideal candidate for the Republicans, because he has, through the years, managed to put together enough positive public relations that he's avoided becoming a polarizing figure. So while it looks as if he'll be able to snare a respectable number of social/moral conservatives, especially if he is artful in picking a running mate, he has, at the same time, the ability to grab some of the independent vote.

And maybe more.

I never used to believe there was a way a party could come out of the primary process damaged as a result, not matter how heated the battle became. After all, even after expressing some limitless misgivings about one another, and craving out legitimate differences, everyone seems to come together at the end, if for no other reason than for party solidarity. But we can see empirical evidence that not only will there not be party unity this time around for Democrats, there may be considerable crossover to the other side.

If I were a backer of the Democrats I would be extremely concerned about a recent Gallup poll regarding the effect of the split within the party. According to daily tracking by Gallup from March 7-22, 28% of voters who are currently putting their support behind Hillary Clinton say that if their candidate doesn't win the nomination, they will actually vote for McCain in the general election. And 19% of Obama supporters say the same thing if Hillary wins, a number that would likely go up in that event, since no doubt the impression will be that Clinton pirated the nod through back-room deals made with super delegates, in their mind circumventing the democratic process.

Obviously, as Obama is a heavy favorite to win the nomination, that 28% is the more relevant figure. But either way, these numbers represent big chunks of Democratic Party support defecting, and that says nothing of the numbers of people who would simply stay home on Election Day.

All of this does nothing but help McCain, who has been able to come off as enough of a departure from what we are used to seeing from Republicans in recent years that some Democrats are not ashamed to vote for him. And needless to say, he's positioned to draw many people who are on the fence.

This primary season has become more and more contentious. I can just imagine Clinton looking on in horror as the very ethnic groups her and her husband have pandered to all these years slowly but surely turned against her, while in the process, this nomination, to which she had felt an unusual sense of entitlement, began to slip away. Don't tell me the race card hasn't been played to the hilt on both sides of this "Us vs. 'Dem" battle.

Things are bound to get worse for the Democrats before they get better. Anybody expecting Clinton to pack up and go home for the sake of uniting the party had better not hold their breath. A win for her in Pennsylvania (which I forecast, by the way, at -300 in the BetUS political betting odds) will only encourage her effort, as she spins a story of "electoral math" on the super delegates; in other words, "I won the big states in the primaries, I can win them in the election. And HE CAN'T."

And as much as interests at mainstream media outlets like MSNBC are trying so hard to push Obama across the finish line, nor just through the convention but all the way to the general, the Illinois senator is bound to step in it enough times to create an opening for anyone wants to play that race card in reverse. Don't think you've heard the last of the meek and mild Reverend Wright. Republican operatives will have a whole new spin on that story in the fall.

What I've noticed is that the biggest card the Democrats have to play against McCain is not the juxtaposition of Obama's youth (46) against McCain's wear-and-tear (he's 71), but that he is so resolutely behind the war effort. You would think that would, in and of itself, be enough to defeat him. And I am familiar with the logic. McCain digs the war. An overwhelming majority of Americans don't. Simple, right? Yeah, except the latest Rasmussen poll indicates that McCain has an eight-point lead over both Clinton and Obama. That doesn't necessarily mean he's going to WIN by eight points, but it certainly doesn't say he's going to lose.

And this all reminds me of something I heard on MSNBC's "Hardball" program, from host Chris Matthews as a matter of fact, who pointed out that while anti-war efforts often gather a lot of steam, it doesn't seem that anybody actually gets elected by opposing an ongoing war.

I thought about it, and you know what? He may be right.

McCain is, at worst, an even money shot in this race.

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(Charles Jay was the 2004 presidential candidate of the Personal Choice Party, and is also the 2008 nominee. He says he will place odds on himself at the appropriate time. He is currently a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)