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posted October 1, 2008 at 11:57 in Other Articles

ABRAHAM VS. MARQUEZ: IS AN UPSET IN THE AIR?

by Charles Jay

BetUS Sportsbook boxing bettors will have a world championship fight to wager on this weekend, as the IBF middleweight titleholder, Arthur Abraham, will defend his crown against former U.S, Olympian Raul Marquez. The bout is scheduled for 12 rounds and will be held at the Jako-Arena in Bayern, Germany

BetUS boxing betting odds:

IBF Middleweight Title

October 4 -- Bayern, Germany

ARTHUR ABRAHAM -1400

RAUL MARQUEZ +750

OVER 8.5 ROUNDS -125

UNDER 8.5 ROUNDS -105

For betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:

ABRAHAM (27-0, 22 KO's), the -1400 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, is an Armenian native who has been fighting as a pro since 2003. He progressed quickly, beating Nader Hamdan, Ian Gardner and Howard Eastman in a ten-month period to solidify his status as a contender to watch. The win over Eastman won him the WBA Inter-Continental title. Abraham won the vacant IBF 160-pound crown in December 2005 with a five-round KO over Kingsley Ikeke, and has now defended that championship on eight different occasions. One of those fights was a hotly-disputed 12-round decision over Edison Miranda in September of 2006, which he actually won by five points on one card and six points on the other two. That was the last fight where he had to go the distance; in his last bout, he stopped Miranda in four rounds in the long-awaited rematch.

MARQUEZ (41-3-1, 29 KO's), the +750 underdog at BetUS, is on a comeback trail, which he hopes will result in his regaining a world title, this time at 160 pounds. Marquez was the 156-pound representative for the U.S. at the 1992 Olympics, and went to the third round of competition before being defeated. He turned pro in October of 1992 and advanced through a number of mediocre opponents, culminating with a ninth-round TKO over Anthony Stephens in April 1997 to win the IBF junior middleweight title. He defended a couple of times before losing to Yori Boy Campas, and later lost on an 11th-round TKO to Fernando Vargas that sent him into retirement for a year and a half. He was stopped in nine rounds by Jermain Taylor in June 2004, and that sent him into another hiatus for a couple of years. Marquez came back to action against middling opposition at best, then, in his last bout, he scored a unanimous decision over previously undefeated Giovanni Lorenzo in an eliminator to earn himself a title shot.

There are advantages all over the place for Abraham. He is the fresher guy, and much younger (28) than Marquez (37). He has fought at middleweight and/or super middleweight for his whole career, while Marquez's better days were as a 154-pounder. Sure, Marquez is a southpaw, and we must acknowledge that Abraham, since becoming a ten-round fighter, has faced only one southpaw, Ian Gardner, who gave him some difficulty (Abraham won by margins of two, three and five points). But by virtue of his own style, Abraham can cause an awful lot of problems for opponents in dealing with HIM. He is not bad in the regular stand-up mode, but is sometimes more effective when he swoops in and crowds his opponent. He also has the kind of power that can cause some havoc.

I don't know that Marquez has made his way back into the title picture against very high-caliber opposition. And a draw with Bronco McKart, who is well past his prime, is not a good sign. He is here mainly because of his connections. And he doesn't really hit hard enough to keep Abraham off him. So the question isn't really whether Marquez can actually beat Abraham, but how far he can actually go. Something tells me that going rounds is built into Marquez's game plan. His strategy is to make Abraham expend energy, and hope that he gets winded in the latter rounds, as he did in the first fight against Miranda. His three losses tell us that he hasn't been the type to get taken out right away.

I would think that if Marquez's southpaw style makes any kind of difference, it's that it could cause Abraham to make some adjustments, which might take some time. But we do think it could impact the distance prop, which is set at a reasonable number. We're going to go OVER that total, which is posted at 8.5 rounds in the BetUS boxing betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 8.5 ROUNDS (-125) ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)

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