posted May 5, 2008 at 16:38 in NHL Free Picks

Dallas Stars (45-30-7) vs. Detroit Red Wings (54-21-7)

Season Series: Det 3-1

Detroit absolutely dismantled Colorado in what turned out to be the biggest online betting dud in the entire Western Conference playoffs. Now they’ll face Dallas, the feistiest teams in the pit-fight today. Dallas has had their doubters throughout these playoffs (myself included) but destroying San Jose, and outlasting them in a triple-over-time game to clinch the series, proves that they have the moxie to win the Western Conference Final.

They’ll certainly have their hands full with the vaunted attack of the Detroit Red Wings. The Wings lead all playoffs teams with 3.13 goals per game, while stifling opposing teams to 2.24 goals against. The problem with betting on Detroit is that they haven’t been tested yet. Colorado crumbled like an overcooked apple pie, while Nashville offered a bit of a fight, before being stomped in to the mud by Detroit’s incredibly fluid offense.

Now Detroit will have a real test, facing a team in Dallas which rocked two of the best teams in the league in the opening two rounds. They completely tore Anaheim to shreds, in five-games no less, and just survived a late-series tsunami from the San Jose Sharks. Dallas is rifling off only 26.67 shots per game in the playoffs, but they are making them count. And the defense is suffocating.

However, Detroit wins the President’s Trophy every year for a damn good reason. Outside of Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, who each have 13 points, the guy to keep your eye on is Conn Smythe candidate Johan Franzen who has a blistering 14 points with 11 goals and 3 helpers. Ridiculous.

As good as Detroit is, there has to be something said about playing at a high level and the fear of a team “falling asleep”. Dallas has been thriving in high pressure situations behind the monstrous performances of Brenden Morrow (11 points), Mike Ribeiro (14 points) and Brad Richards (11 points). And these were against defensively stiff steams. To say that Dallas’s motor is cranked and ready to go is an understatement. They’re playing at such an intense level, I’d be surprised if anyone who’s bet against them has any hair left.

Detroit, on the other hand, had a cake walk in the second round, and not much of a challenge in the first. The handful of problems that Nashville gave them can be heaped up on Dominik Hasek, who was pulled for Chris Osgood. Ozzie has been a wall in net, shutting teams out to 1.52 goals against. The thing is that Colorado didn’t even make them sweat. Detroit is a veteran team, so they won’t walk in to the Western Conference Finals without understanding what’s at stake. But they can’t lose home-ice advantage off the bat with Dallas barreling down the tunnel.

Again, as in any important NHL match-up, the key focus should be on goal tending. Ozzie’s numbers are outstanding, but Turco has steadied Dallas with 1.73 goals against, against far stiffer competition. This series might be decided by a Turc-ish delight, while Ozzie sings the blues.

Dallas has been insanely convincing in the opening rounds of the playoffs. Detroit is no slouch, but I’m going to go with the proven underdog over the sleepy favorite in this one.

NHL Furious Series Prediction: Dallas in 7

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