posted February 25, 2008 at 18:33 EST in NHL Free Picks

Philadelphia Flyers (30-25-7) vs. Buffalo Sabres (30-24-8)

Monday, February 25th --- HSBC Arena, Buffalo --- 7:00pm EST

NHL Betting Line: Buffalo -190

Philadelphia may still average 3.03 goals per game, but there 1-7 SU record over the past 8 games speaks for itself. The line may seem stiff considering the fire power that Philadelphia bears, but they are also 0-5 SU in their past 5 games in the HSBC Arena. Buffalo’s betting backers have a lot of reason to smile heading in to this matchup.

It doesn’t really matter who the opponent is lately for Philly. Whether it’s the power houses of San Jose, Ottawa or Montreal, a 2-1 loss against Florida says everything you need to know about what’s going on the Daniel Briere and the Flyers. They have averaged just 1.75 goals over the past five games and Antero Niitymaki has allowed an absurd amount of goals during that stretch. The defensively inept Flyers have allowed 2.6 goals against over their five game losing stretch.

The Sabres have only gone 2-3 SU in their past five games, but are a juggernaut having won 10 of their last 15 games. Ryan Miller has appeared vulnerable against high scoring teams. They were outscored 9-4 in two games against the Rangers last week, while allowing Tampa Bay to keep up with them on the scoreboard in a 4-3 win. The Sabres overall defense ranks fifteenth in the league with 2.8 goals against, but they are the best scoring offense at home with 2.4 goals for per game.

A lot of people think the Flyers will turn their fate around with a solid win over the Sabres and get the puck sliding towards better times tonight. But the betting trends point the other way in a big way. Bet safely on Buffalo despite the steep line.

NHL Free Pick: Buffalo (OVER)

Toronto Maple Leafs (26-28-9) vs. Ottawa Senators (36-20-6)

Monday, February 25th --- Scotiabank Place, Ottawa --- 7:30pm

NHL Betting Line: Ottawa -220

This rivalry, if you can call that anymore, is certainly not what it used to be. Ottawa is near the top of the Eastern Conference, despite going 2-4 SU in their past six games. The road weary Leafs have always stepped up their game against the Senators, but the 2-10 SU record in their past 12 road games has to make even the most courageous betting investor a little leery.

The Leafs still rifle off some of the most shots in the league with 30.56 shots per game, but that has only translated in to a modest 2.73 goals per game. Their defense continues to be porous, allowing 3.17 goals against and an abundance of quality shots to pepper Vesa Toskala between the pipes. Ottawa also manages 30+ shots per game, while putting 3.39 lamp lighters past opposing net minders. But without Chris Neil monitoring the blue line, Ray Emery and Martin Gerber have been getting gutted in net.

Ottawa is just 2-3 SU in their past five games, but registered a solid road victory over Pittsburgh. But their goals allowed during that stretch is appalling for an elite team. They are giving up nearly 3.0 goals per game in their past five, and that puts them in a dangerous spot heading in to a match up with a Toronto team that always drops the sixth gear against their heated rivals.

The betting trends point in the other direction, but something about this matchup has “upset” written all over it. Toronto is coming off a decent home stand with a 3-2 SU record and hits the road to kick start an East coast road trip by starting with Ottawa. Despite the betting trends, take Toronto as the heavy underdog and reap the rewards of having a little faith.

NHL Free Pick: Toronto (OVER)

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