posted December 24, 2008 at 10:40 EST in NFL Props
Odds to Win the Super Bowl
by Charles Jay
NFL Football Futures Betting
WHO WILL BE IN THE WINNER'S CIRCLE?Well, we're down to the final week of the regular season, and though there are a few things that have to be settled, we pretty much know who is going to be in the post-season hunt. Let's put it this way - if you're still worried about other teams having to lose for you to get in at this juncture, you're probably not a serious threat to be playing in the final game of the season.
Here are the odds to win the Super Bowl as they are posted at BetUS Sportsbook:
New England Patriots +2000
New York Jets +6000
Miami Dolphins +3000
Baltimore Ravens +1600
Pittsburgh Steelers +450
Indianapolis Colts +750
Tennessee Titans +500
San Diego Chargers +2500
Denver Broncos +6600
Dallas Cowboys +1600
Philadelphia Eagles +8000
New York Giants +275
Washington Redskins +15000
Chicago Bears +6600
Minnesota Vikings +2500
Carolina Panthers +750
Atlanta Falcons +1400
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3500
Arizona Cardinals +3500
Well, if there is one thing ARIZONA (+3500 at BetUS) is demonstrating, it's that they don't have what it takes to get through this playoff schedule, judging from the efforts in some of their road games. But they would host any wild card team that got to advance, and if they got lucky and could play a game indoors (at Minnesota, for example), they could conceivably pass their way into the NFC title game. As far as going to a place like Chicago or the Meadowlands, forget it. And they have given up an average of 40 points on their trips east, in case you though they could win in a venue like Carolina or even Philadelphia.
CAROLINA is listed at +750 at BetUS and the ATLANTA Falcons are +1400, and whether they stay at those figures depends greatly on what happens this weekend. The Falcons have a game against St. Louis, which will be about as tough as they make it, while Carolina goes to New Orleans, where they will contend with a Saints team and Drew Brees, who will be trying to eclipse Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season. I could see Atlanta as a very difficult playoff foe if they get the #2 seed, because they'll have home games. Michael Turner is averaging just under 118 yards per game at the Georgia Dome, although Matt Ryan has played more of a low-risk game there (5 TD's, 3 INT's).
DALLAS (+1600 at BetUS), as one might expect, could be either a "feast" or "famine" proposition. They have a lot of talent, of course, but there is that element in them that could under-achieve at any time. And how long has it been since the Cowboys have won a playoff game? Pretty long.
MINNESOTA (+2500 at BetUS) has the ability to control a game from the line of scrimmage, with Adrian Peterson (1657 yards) running it and that defensive line stopping the run (3.3 ypc allowed). Tarvaris Jackson has thrown seven TD passes without an interception since he's come back to claim the starting quarterback job. Is he their ticket? Somehow I think not. And the loss of Pat Williams will have its short-term effect on the Vikings' run-stopping capabilities. Anyway, there is a doubt they'll get there at all if they don't beat the Giants at home on Sunday. They ought to be able to accomplish that, considering New York will be resting players. If they don't write them off, regardless of what happens with Chicago and the division.
PHILADELPHIA (+8000 at BetUS) blew its opportunity on the one-yard line against Washington, while TAMPA BAY (+3500 at BetUS) won't dink-and-dunk its way anywhere, even if they manage to get in.
NEW ENGLAND (+2000 at BetUS) has done a great job to maneuver its way into playoff position, and it's not so inconceivable that the Jets could win against Miami and afford the Pats the chance to go to the playoffs. Once the Patriots are in there, I believe anything could happen because right now, it looks like Matt Cassel is operating in this offense with a lot of confidence. As for the JETS (+6000 at BetUS), I simply see Brett Favre throwing a game away sooner or later. MIAMI (+3000 at BetUS) has done a terrific job, and would get to host somebody in the first round of playoff action, but I'm sure that would be the end for this Cinderella squad.
BALTIMORE (+1600 at BetUS) does a lot of fundamental things right and plays the style of football that could succeed in cold weather with its running game and defense, but it is just inconceivable to me that a team can march through the playoffs and Super Bowl as a wild card with a rookie at quarterback. DENVER (+6600 at BetUS) isn't going to go anywhere in the playoffs, because they just don't stop anyone's running game well enough. The team that would be more dangerous in that division, if they win it this weekend, is SAN DIEGO (+2500 at BetUS), which has been playing as if their lives depended on it, and has one of the more productive quarterbacks among the teams who are still alive in Phillip Rivers (32 TD's, 11 INT's). Their wild card is, you never know when LaDanian Tomlinson, who hasn't had much of a year (1014 yards), might put together a couple of very good games.
PITTSBURGH (+450 at BetUS) allowed 300 yards for the first time this past weekend against Tennessee. The Steelers probably have the best defense of the teams that will be competing in the post-season tournament, but I'm just a little uncomfortable with the fact that against any of these teams at the next level, Ben Roethlisberger (17 TD's, 14 INT's) is going to be running for his life. The Pittsburgh offensive line has given up 46 sacks heading into the season finale.
TENNESSEE (+500 at BetUS) obviously has a lot of things going for it, including a genuine two-fisted rushing attack with sensational rookie Chris Johnson (1228 yards) and LenDale White (15 TD's). Kyle VanDen Bosch will be available for the playoffs, and so this team will stop the run, bring pressure, run the ball, etc. What you get worried about is what happens if another team makes it difficult for them to run the ball. Can they live on the arm of Kerry Collins (12 TD's, 58% completions) for the balance of a playoff game?
Back to the NFC, there really isn't a team that is as solid all-around as the GIANTS (+275 at BetUS), and to lose two top pass rushers, not to mention your top wide receiver, and continue to operate at a high level, Tom Coughlin is certainly to be commended. With apologies to clubs like Minnesota, Carolina and Tennessee, I doubt there is a team in this playoff picture who can control a game on the ground like the Giants, because at all times they can have a fresh back in the game who can take the ball from coast-to-coast. Did we need any more evidence of it than this past Sunday night against Carolina, when Derrick Ward ran for 215 yards? If Coughlin lets him log some time this week, he'll provide the Giants with their second 1000-yard rusher of the season. Even though Carolina showed that it was for real in that thrilling overtime game in East Rutherford, I don't see anyone overcoming the Giants in the NFC. Last year they ran through everybody on the road, and had a losing record at home. This time around they were 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 against the number at home.
Considering the prices that are available, my team to win it all is going to be the INDIANAPOLIS Colts (+750 at BetUS), even though they are going to have to do it as a wild card. Sure, they are going to have to do it as a visitor as well, but they've won 14 of their last 17 road games, in fact I am more confident with this team traveling than I am in their performance at the new Lucas Oil Stadium. Don't forget that this team lost home playoff games to San Diego and Pittsburgh in recent years, but what they do have is the most dependable quarterback left in this post-season derby. During the team's current eight-game winning streak Peyton Manning has been sensational, throwing 16 touchdown passes with just three interceptions. And he's dome this despite the fact that Marvin Harrison is in the twilight of his career, not able to stretch defenses the way he used to. So Reggie Wayne (81 catches), who's been to three straight Pro Bowls and Dallas Clark (71 catches), who should be going to the Pro Bowl, has picked up the slack and then some. Bob Sanders is back in the lineup, and we know what he means to the run defense. For those of you who cite that the Colts have not run the ball very well this season, you are right, but that doesn't mean they CAN'T run the ball. In fact, with Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes, who were standouts in Super Bowl 41, they have enough to achieve the necessary balance.
I started to think this way when I was watching the Colts' game against Jacksonville last week. While some people may have been wondering why Indianapolis was having so much trouble with a mediocre team that had nothing left to really play for, I was looking at this team that had fallen behind by a 14-0 and was in absolutely no doubt as to their ability to come back and win that game, even though they had some ground to make up in the fourth quarter. This is a team with supreme confidence and poise, with the leader who can get them out of any jam.
Giants. Colts. That's Manning vs, Manning, isn't it?
Yes it is. Super Bowl props, anyone?
