posted February 1, 2009 at 17:00 EST in NFL Free Picks
Super Bowl XLIII - Is it in the Cards or will Pittsburgh Steele one?
by Tim Furious
In the Superbowl, almost more than any other sport, coaching matters. That’s why Bill Cowher became a Super Bowl champion. It’s why Belichik and Dungy have won titles in recent years. Despite the reviews that Coughlin received from Tiki Barber, his coaching style worked enough to cause the greatest upset in Super Bowl history. So why do I bring this up with two coaches with less than five years of head coaching experience between the two of them?
Well actually I’ve been bringing it up all week. The biggest weakness for the Steelers has been their offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger may be difficult to tackle, and fairly nimble for a man his size, but none of that negates the fact that defensive linemen caused to become a turf muncher 46 times this season. Roethlisberger also posted the 24th worst quarterback rating on the season, with just 80.1, and he’s infamous for posting the lowest quarterback rating in a Super Bowl with 23.3 against the Seahawks. Stat wise, Big Ben has nearly a 1-1 ratio of picks to touchdowns (17 scores, 15 picks). These are not the best numbers when he’s lining up against his former offensive line coach, and former offensive coordinator.
Wisenhunt and Grimm are vindictive. It’s well documented that they were both pissed at the Rooney family glazing over them for the head coaching spot of the Pittsburgh Steelers, instead giving the mantle to relatively unknown and inexperienced coordinator Mike Tomlin.
The last time coach was elbow deep in familiarity with his opponent was the Superbowl in which the Bucs blew the Raiders out of the water 48-21 in 2003. All this because Gruden knew every nuance of Gannon’s motions, to the tendencies of the offensive line. Gannon posted five picks, the most in any Super Bowl, and now the mistake-prone Roethlisberger could be in for a record breaking day…for all the wrong reasons.
-Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
-Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games
-Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
-Arizona is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
-Arizona has pushed the OVER in 5-of-6
-the total has gone OVER IN 4-of-5 when Pittsburgh plays Arizona
The fact remains that Roethlisberger is playing against two extremely talented coaches who now him inside and out. Ultimately it was Cowher that had the greatest influence on Big Ben, but Wisenhunt studied him up front and personnel, and Grimm was the man entrusted with protecting No. 7. Now they will be gunning for him. Arizona managed only 31.0 sacks, but this is one offensive line, and one stagnant quarterback that they could ruin if given the right insider information.
This, however, does not negate the fact that Pittsburgh has many weapons. The Steelers were able to produce points with their three-tiered rushing attack, that now boasts a full-powered Fast Willie Parker ready to tear apart his previous Super Bowl setting rushing touchdown record. Pittsburgh averaged a strong 105.3 rush yards per game, and Arizona always found it difficult to get off the field. At the end of the day, the Steelers can hurt you defensively, and on the ground. In a game where Ben Roethlisberger will have be hounded like a T-Bone steak in a dog pound, the other units will have to step up to produce points.
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Sunday, February 1st --- Raymond James Stadium, Tampa --- 6:20pm EST
NFL Betting Line: Pittsburgh -6.5 (46)
When you look closely at this game, you notice things like Arizona coaching personnel, the fact that the Steelers had a brutal road to the Super Bowl playing Tennessee and Baltimore twice, and that the Cardinals are touting an aerial attack that has been all-but unstoppable in the last three weeks.
When you pull back, however, you are clearly reminded that the Steelers have been, without a doubt, one of the premier and elite teams of the NFL throughout the entire NFL betting season. The Cardinals? They’ve been here and there. While I love the upset just as much as anyone, I think that the x-factor here isn’t Fitzgerald, Grimm and Wisenhunt or Willie Parker.
It’s the Pittsburgh defense.
Do not underestimate the Steeler Curtain heading in to this game. Carolina had a great secondary that got torched to the ground. But the Steelers have the best defensive in the NFL. Period. They rank tops in points against with only 13.9, have the best passing defense with only 157.0 passing yards and only 105.3 rushing yards. They will make this game much more difficult for Warner and company than the Cardinals defense will give Roethlisberger.
At the end of the day, the Steelers defense can rush the Cardinals offense off the field, and they can capitalize on turnovers to the point that Troy Polamalu may be able to capture the MVP. Bet against the Steelers at your own risk. But when the Cardinals are “too good to be true”, you might want to believe it.
Upsets happen when EVERYONE says one team is going to win (just like last year’s undefeated Patriots). But now everyone and their dead grandmother is backing the Cardinals. Expect the unexpected on Sunday and go against the new betting grain of the gambling world.
NFL Furious Free Pick – Pittsburgh -6.5 (UNDER)
