posted November 20, 2009 at 17:00 EST in NFL Free Picks
Proving Grounds – San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
by Tim Furious
The “Proving Grounds” column has always been a showcase of two teams that are on the verge of becoming a contender. Teams like New England, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and the Miami Dolphins have had to test themselves in statement games and at this point in the season, teams are losing the chance to prove their worth as a contender.
Such is the case for the Packers, who are miles behind Minnesota in the NFC North, and the Niners who are trying to stay on pace with Arizona in the NFC West. Which team will flex their betting muscle this weekend?
The Niners are coming off a “win” of sorts after picking off Jay Cutler five-times on a Thursday night prime time victory. But the offense stalled like a Ford Mustang with a 17-year old bimbo at the wheel, managing just 10-points on the board. Still, the Niners have been a football betting man’s paradise going 6-2-1 ATS in nine games and 5-1-1 ATS in seven roadies. Alex Smith or not, this team just finds a way to protect your dollars.
What I like about the 49ers is that their defense plays with character. Against the pas, they’re opportunistic and formidable, but they allow teams to march up and down their faces with 284.3 yards allowed through the air at home. Good thing their rushing defense is ranked third at home with 71.3 yards allowed per game. No big day of resurrection for Ryan Grant, that’s for sure.
San Francisco 49ers (4-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-4)
Sunday, November 22nd --- 1:00pm EST
Lambeau Field, Green Bay
NFL Betting Line: Green Bay -6.5 (42)
>> Join now to bet on 49ers vs Packers -6.5
For Green Bay’s sake, I really can’t tell if they beat Dallas, or if Tony Romo just had one of “those games”. Green Bay has been an impossible team to read this year. They average 25.8 points per game, but are just 5-4 ATS this season and have lost two incredibly meaningful games to Minnesota.
I think that Green Bay is just a star studded team that is riding coattails of reputation instead of building a legacy of their own, and for that reason I don’t trust them.
Green Bay’s defense is outstanding overall, but Mike Singletary won’t be dumb enough to unleash Alex Smith unchecked. This is going to be a tight, methodical game that pulls the UNDER in to play and watches San Francisco cover in a very cautiously played game.
Green Bay’s biggest mistake will be to try and come out firing against a secondary that enjoyed picking off Jay Cutler like a cherry blossom.
San Fran may not get the win here, but I doubt that they get blown out either. Theirs is so much on the line for Green Bay as a contender and I don’t even know if a boisterous home field advantage will even help at this point. I’m siding with the team that has less to lose in this one, and that would be the Niners.
