posted October 30, 2009 at 11:29 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Week 8 Preview - Brett's Return and More...
by BetUS Staff
There’s tons of value on the BetUS NFL betting board this weekend, but all eyes are on Brett Favre’s return to Green Bay for the Vikings’ battle with the Packers on Sunday afternoon.
Favre has certainly played well in Minnesota, but it stands that Green Bay made the right decision by turning the page when he retired for the first time over two years ago.
Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best quarterback not named Peyton Manning this season, even if the Packers’ offensive line continues to let him down almost every Sunday. Expect Rodgers to have a great game in Favre’s return to Lambeau Field, but handicap Minnesota’s pass rush to be the difference at the window.
Minnesota at Green Bay (-3, 47) – 4:15 PM ET
Regardless of what you think of the Favre saga, the betting public is certainly siding with the Vikings (6-1, 4-3 ATS) heading into their showdown with the Packers (4-2, 4-2 ATS).
About 66% of wagers against the number have come in on Minnesota, but oddsmakers are sticking with the initial line they set earlier in the week. If that type of consensus behavior continues into the weekend, don’t be surprised if Green Bay is moved off its 3-point perch.
Bettors are likely looking back at the Vikes’ 30-23 win over the Pack at the Metrodome on October 5. Minnesota (-4.5) covered largely on its ability to pressure Rodgers, who was sacked eight times in the loss. With tackle Chad Clifton (ankle) considered questionable for Sunday’s game, expect the Vikings to get to Rodgers with regularity again this week.
Denver at Baltimore (-3, 41.5) – 1 PM ET
The surprising Broncos (6-0, 6-0 ATS) put their perfect record on the line when they take on the Ravens (3-3, 4-2 ATS) at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday.
Both teams are coming off a bye week, so expect them to be prepared for each other prior to kickoff. Not that you’d anticipate anything less from Denver head coach Josh McDaniels. Criticized in the offseason for his role in the departure of former franchise quarterback Jay Cutler, McDaniels has his Broncos ranked first in scoring defense (11.0 points per game) and second in total defense (262.5 YPG).
Baltimore sideline boss John Harbaugh spent the last two weeks working with his defensive secondary. The Ravens (+3) allowed too many big plays in their 33-31 loss at the Vikings in Week 6, even if they should have won the game outright anyway. Baltimore comes into the game ranked 19th in scoring defense (21.7 PPG).
San Francisco at Indianapolis (-12, 44) – 1 PM ET
Alex Smith makes his first start since the 2007 season when the 49ers (3-3, 4-1-1 ATS) hook up with the Colts (6-0, 5-1 ATS) on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in a battle of two of the league’s most profitable wagers against the NFL point spread.
Smith took over in the second half for Shaun Hill in San Francisco’s 24-21 loss at Houston (-3) last week, almost leading the team back from a 21-0 deficit. The first overall selection in the 2005 NFL draft, Smith finished 15-of-22 for 206 yards with three touchdown passes to Vernon Davis after coming into the game.
For the Niners to cover against the Colts, they’ll need to find a way to slow down Manning and the Indianapolis offense. The Colts have put up at least 31 points in winning four straight contests, going 4-0 ATS while outscoring their opponents by an average of 24 points per game.
Miami at NY Jets (-3, 40.5) – 1 PM ET
The Jets (4-3, 4-3 ATS) get another crack at the Dolphins (2-4, 2-4 ATS), who desperately need a victory to stay relevant in the AFC playoff picture on Sunday in East Rutherford.
New York had Miami beat when the teams met on October 12 at LandShark Stadium, but Ronnie Brown’s three-yard touchdown run with six seconds left lifted the Dolphins past the Jets 31-27 as 3-point underdogs.
Be prepared for both teams to pound the ball on the ground on Sunday. The Jets (-6) ran for more than 300 yards in their 38-0 pasting of Oakland last week, and come into the contest with the best running game in the league (184.9 YPG). The Dolphins are ranked second in the NFL in rushing at 170.3 YPG.
