posted October 15, 2008 at 17:01 in NFL Free Picks
NFL Week 7 Football - Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
by Charles Jay
Two teams who are trying to get to the .500 mark will meet up down south on Sunday, when the Baltimore Ravens (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) take on the Miami Dolphins (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) in NFL action that is set to kick off at 1 PM ET at Dolphin Stadium (natural turf) in Miami Gardens, FL.
Sunday, October 19
BetUS NFL betting odds: MIAMI -2.5, Total 36.5
NOTABLE STAT: Baltimore has gained just 5.2 yards per pass attempt
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Ravens have lost their last seven road games SU
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Dolphins are listed as a 2.5-point favorite, with a posted total of 36.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* BALT has covered four of its last six games
* BALT has lost 16 of its last 22 games ATS
* BALT has lost 12 of its last 15 games SU
* BALT has played eight of its last 12 games OVER the total
* BALT has covered one of its last ten road games
* BALT has lost its last seven road games SU
* BALT has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
* MIA has lost 21 of its last 24 games SU
* MIA has played seven of its last ten games OVER the total
* MIA has covered three of its last 11 home games
* MIA has lost nine of its last 11 games SU
Also...
* MIA has won and covered ten of the last 12 meetings
* Five of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total
* MIA has covered five of the last seven meetings as the home team
* MIA has won seven of the last eight meetings SU
* Five of the last six meetings in Miami have gone UNDER the total
These two teams met last year on this field, and it brought Miami its first and only victory of the season, a 22-16 overtime thriller that was achieved with Cleo Lemon at the controls, with Troy Smith, the Heisman Trophy winner, playing for the Ravens. Some things have changed since then - namely both coaches and both quarterbacks.
Joe Flacco is starting to show he's a rookie; despite completing 28 of 38 passes against the Colts, he tossed three interceptions to give him seven on the year, and has to this date thrown only one touchdown pass. The Ravens' offense is limited with him at the helm, but it would probably be that way with anyone, as Baltimore threatens no one with its wide receivers. This is good news for the Dolphins, who have secondary problems that are going to take a draft or two to address properly.
With Chad Pennington at the helm, Miami is not necessarily a great team at getting the ball downfield, but he is managing to stay away from big mistakes (just two INT's in 137 passes) and he has gone 58 for 74 in his last three contests. Not coincidentally, that is since Miami went to its "Wildcat" or "spread option" package, which is giving defensive coordinators something additional to have to prepare for, especially if it is executed properly. It produces big plays too, as was illustrated when Pennington hit Patrick Cobbs on a 58-yard flea flicker against Houston.
Baltimore has enough defense to minimize those big plays, and with Flacco still under center (coach John Harbaugh has given him the "vote of confidence"), that means the Ravens will continue to emphasize the run. Willis McGahee is at 3.2 ypc, and Le'Ron McClain is 4.1, so this is somewhat limited as well.
Miami has some edges here, primarily the fact that even though they might struggle overall, the installation of the new offensive twist puts a little more fight into this team. However, we want to look at the total, because this could simply come down to defenses doing their job and offenses dealing with inconsistency. So, even though both teams have trended "over" lately, we're moving UNDER 36.5 points, as it is posted in the BetUS NFL betting odds, in this AFC contest.
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 36.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)