posted September 30, 2008 at 14:45 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Week 5 Preview and Free Picks
by Tim Furious
With Week 4 in the bag, the NFL is wide open. What the hell is with Dallas trying to cover Santana Moss? How have they not figured this out yet? The Patriots, Colts and Giants are all coming off of bye weeks and have reasonable matchups heading in to the weekend.
The morning games kick off with the Baltimore Ravens on a short week as hosts to the rowdy Tennessee Titans. The game is currently a pick ‘em, mostly because Baltimore is one of the more difficult teams to grade right now. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home, though that shouldn’t discourage the Titans’ betting faithful. Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games and 9-4 SU in their last 13 games on the road. If Kerry Collins and Chris Johnson get points on the road, then you should jump all over the Titans in this one.
One of the teams that emerged out of the darkness is Carolina, which torched Atlanta 24-9 last weekend. They have a much more formidable matchup against Larry Johnson and the Chiefs. LJ had a 198 yard game, capped with two touchdowns, and he’s staring down a suspect defense in Carolina that allows 114.3 yards per game against on the ground. KC is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road game, and while the Panthers bettors are starting to gain faith, they should be wary when the Panthers get near double-digits. It’s a trap. Bet on the Chiefs in the UNDER.
The Packers look to be in real big trouble, and until we know more about Aaron Rodgers’ injury. He had a separated shoulder against Tampa last weekend, as Green Bay surrendered a loss. They’ve gone from top dogs to bottom feeders in less than a week. The exact opposite is happening to the 4-2 ATS Falcons. The road record pegs the Falcons as losers, going 1-4 ATS and winless in their last 5 roadies. If you had to point a gun to my head, I’d say that Green Bay at home is a safe bet, aside from that loss to the Dallas Cowboys. You need to wait for more info on Rodgers before you bet on the Packers and Falcons game this weekend.
The Texans continue their crap shoot as they host Indianapolis this weekend. The Colts have gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Houston, and remain without Bob Sanders at safety. I hate the Texans and advise betting against them every week. Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning have had a week to figure out why they’re only scoring 17.3 points per game. I’d never bet against intelligent coaching like Dungy while he’s up against a wonky team like the Texans. Bet on Indy to squash their AFC South rivals with a favorable spread of -3 leaning in their favor.
The Giants will host the Seattle Seahawks, who look absolutely miserable. Matt Hasselbeck is undoubtedly one of the best in the game, but he has no weapons. Bobby Engram returns from injury, and Plaxico Burress is still suspended. The spread is way too big for the Giants to cover without their biggest offensive threat on the field. Seattle looks like a safe pick with New York getting a 9-point handicap.
The Eagles and Redskins kick off in what will prove to be one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend. Washington showed punch last week by beating up on the best team in the NFL, while the Eagles and DeSean Jackson suffered a heart breaker against Chicago on Sunday night. The Eagles are a dangerous team and their defense is only giving up 245.6 yards per game, which his reason for me to have more betting faith in Philly than in Jason Campbell and the Redskins. Washington always turns the screw against Dallas. They’re still 3-10 SU when playing the Iggles in the last 13 meetings.
The Miami Dolphins have the woeful task of hosting the San Diego Chargers, who almost lost to the Raiders, if it wasn’t for Oakland’s own ineptitude. The Chargers have never ever beaten the Dolphins, and Ronnie Brown looks like he can run wild again. I’m no saying he’ll reproduce his 5 touchdown effort, but I am saying that San Diego is highly overrated. I love the Dolphins in the upset win especially with people mistakenly falling in love with these Chargers. Don’t get caught in the undertow.
The Bears are now 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games and look like the force of nature they were when they went to the Superbowl. The defense has returned to form, though their passing defense is ranked in the middle of the pack with 246.5 yards against through the air. That’s hardly a reason to think that Jon Freaking Kitna is going to do some damage. The point differential for the winless Lions is -18.0. A 3.5 point handicap shouldn’t deter the Bears’ betting investors. The Lions are an unmitigated bag of crap.
The Broncos showed their true colors, which I told you they would. They’ve been a betting backers’ worst enemy going 1-2-1 ATS on the year, and got plowed by KC last weekend. Now they host the Bucs, who have a ball-hawking secondary (and linebacking corps apparently!). Jay Cutler and B-Marsh are solid, but I suggest siding with the surly Bucs in this one. Joey Galloway may be out, but Antonio Bryant continues his best behavior. It’s not that Denver is bad, it’s just that they can’t maintain their second-best scoring offense for this long without someone figuring it out. It’s simply not that complex, and Monte Kiffen is going to knife through this offense with his powerful, and opportunistic defensive personnel.
The Cardinals will keep their fingers crossed for Anquan Boldin, whose injury against the Jets was one of the scarier events of the weekend. Without Boldin, Fitzgerald will be the victim of double teams galore, and Terrence McGee will get the help he needs to contain the explosive wide receiver. The Bills are a nasty team, and their 31-14 road victory against St. Louis should have the betting community clamoring to get on the bandwagon of the Bills over Arizona this weekend. If you think Trent Edwards is just a game manager, you’re an idiot. Just be thankful that Marshawn Lynch has to wear his helmet, because goddamn that guys is ugly!
The Bengals showed life for about 34 seconds against the Giants, and then got busted up by the Browns. I’m not wasting my time with these guys, especially considering Carson Palmer looks to be giving up on life. Ok, maybe that was mean to say, but how has he not tried to get out of Cincinnati? The Cowboys are vengeful, and will eat up a horrific Bengals’ offensive line. I’d take the Cowboys at anything under -6.5 and if they’re double digits, then check back to the locker room later this week for a full update!
Ok, so the Niners aren’t as good as we hoped. Even I can admit I made a mistake their. But what about the Patriots? Well I’d be stupid to advise you to bet against Belichik after a week of preparation so pounce on this 3-point line against the Patriots by betting on New England before this line shifts.
The night games start with Pittsburgh looking for some sort of revenge as they visit the Jaguars in Jacksonville. The Jags are 3-point favorites and both teams have been disappointing to their betting backers. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, and are dealing with an assortment of injuries, namely to their running game. For that reason alone, I’d side with Jacksonville who must be licking their chops at devouring a wounded Steel Curtain in their own house.
Two NFC teams who need to amp up their seasons will square off in the Monday Night Football matchup as Minnesota visits New Orleans, with the Saints getting the default home spread of three-points. Gus on the road seems like an instant indication of what to do. But this is New Orleans, and they’ve gotten blown up on the scoreboard by teams that can get in the redzone. Unfortunately for Minnesota, that’s pretty much the one thing they can’t do. Should be a busy night for their kicker, but bet on Drew Brees having his way with a paltry Minnesota secondary en route to victory.
Check back to the Locker Room daily for all the injury updates and line changes you need to know about! Our trained team of analysts and writers will be here to guide you through the Week 5 Odds and Lines, and don’t forget to check out BetUS Radio to cram your ears with the best football betting podcast around!
