posted December 24, 2009 at 16:50 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Week 16 on Christmas Day – Titans Host Chargers in Must-Win
(O/U) 47
Friday, December 25 - 7:00 PM ET
Key Trends
- Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in December.
- Titans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC.
- Titans are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Two of the hottest football teams in the NFL will square off on Christmas night in what promises to be a Game of the Week type of matchup when the red-hot Tennessee Titans (7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS, 8-6 O/U) play host to the incendiary San Diego Chargers (11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-5-1 O/U) on Friday night at 7:30 PM ET.
The game is a must-win matchup for the surging Titans, who are looking to secure a playoff berth after getting off to a shocking 0-6 start this season after winning a league-best 13 games just one year ago.
San Diego 411
The Chargers handed the Cincinnati Bengals a heartbreaking 27-24 loss in Week 15 to record their ninth consecutive win as Philip Rivers passed for 308 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions and Vincent Jackson caught five passes for 108 yards with two scores in the win.
San Diego failed to cover the NFL point spread as a 7-point home favorite and has gone just 1-2 ATS over its last three games while going 6-4 ATS over the last 10 games overall.
Tennessee 411
The Titans also recorded a thrilling victory in Week 15, beating the Miami Dolphins 27- 24 in overtime as Vince Young passed for 236 yards with three touchdowns and an interception and running back Chris Johnson rushed for 104 yards on 29 carries.
Tennessee failed to cash in for pro football betting backers as a 5-point home favorite and has recorded a discouraging 1-3 ATS mark over the last four games after cashing in for pro football betting backers in each of their previous four games.
Analysis: I really like the way the Tennessee Titans and quarterback Vince Young have responded to the adversity they’ve gone through this season and I think they’re going to give the San Diego Chargers all they handle and then some in this matchup.
Unfortunately, I just don’t see them beating a San Diego Chargers team that is playing more focused than ever.
San Diego has averaged a fantastic 29.4 points per game during their nine-game winning streak, but don’t be fooled NFL bettors – the Chargers are succeeding just as much because of their defensive play as anything else.
The Bolts have held their opponents to 17 points or less in five of their last nine games and come into this matchup with a quarterback that has never lost a single game in the month of December.
Now, despite clinching their fourth straight division title in their Week 15 win over the Bengals, the Chargers know they need to win this contest to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC and get the first-round bye that goes along with that seeding.
The Tennessee Titans may not be my pick to win this game, but they certainly aren’t going to just roll over for the Chargers either.
The Titans will look to Young and the NFL's leading rusher, Chris Johnson, t lead them to victory and the combination has been very effective this season. Young has led the Titans to seven wins in eight games and Johnson had his ninth straight 100-yard game in Week 15.
One of the main reasons I like the Chargers to win this game outright despite being on the road is the fact that the Titans have lost two starting defenders to season-ending injuries coming into this matchup with leading tackler Keith Bulluck out with a torn left ACL and linebacker David Thornton having surgery to repair his shoulder and pectoral muscle.
I believe Philip Rivers will take advantage of Tennessee’s backup linebackers, likely by hooking up with tight end Antonio Gates down the middle of the field as the Chargers eke out the narrow road win.
San Diego has gone an impressive 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and have been one of the best teams in all of football at cashing in during the month of December, going a bankroll-boosting 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in December.
The Titans have struggled to provide pro football betting backers with a payday recently, going just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents and 1-8 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Last but not least, the Chargers have gone an unblemished 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings against the Titans.
Take the San Diego Chargers to win this game and cover the NFL point spread as slight road underdogs.
