posted November 15, 2009 at 07:00 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Week 10 Betting Odds – Buccaneers at Dolphins
Tampa Bay (+9½) vs.
Miami (-9½)
O/U (44)
Sunday, November 15th - 1:00 PM ET
Could someone please tell me what the hell is wrong with Miami Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter?
The loud-mouthed idiot talks trash prior to Miami’s (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U) matchup against the powerful New England Patriots, but has absolutely nothing to say with the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS, 5-3 O/U) visiting town this week. Huh?
Okay, okay, while no one may ever figure out what’s rattling around in Porter’s massively thick skull, I can tell you exactly what’s going to happen in Miami’s Week 10 matchup against the Buccaneers when the two in-state rivals square off at Land Shark Stadium on Sunday at 1 PM ET.
The Buccaneers jumped all over the unsuspecting Green Bay Packers in Week 9, spanking their NFC counterparts 38-28 as 9.5-point home underdogs – and I say good for them as I don’t think NFL fans anywhere could have taken another 0-16 team for the second straight season (although four 1-7 teams at this point is just as bad).
First, let’s take a look at each team’s key trends and keys to victory in this ballgame.
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
In order for Tampa Bay to win this game first and foremost they will have to be able to complete some passes against a Miami defense that is ranked a pitiful 28th against the pass this season.
If strong-armed rookie Josh Freeman can have a similar day to the one he did against Green Bay as he tossed three TD passes and just one pick, things will go a whole lot easier for the Tampa Bay’s 23rd-ranked passing attack. If Freeman can’t move the ball through the air – and the rookie made some mistakes against the Packers last week – the Buccaneers could be in for a very long day.
Defensively, the Bucs will need to slow down a Miami rushing attack that is ranked fourth in the league, (150.9 ypg) fueled by its Wildcat attack and has bowled over several opponents this season. However, that could be a big problem with the Buccaneers ranked 30th against the run, allowing a whopping 163.4 yards per game on the ground.
Miami
Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Miami Dolphins will have to keep Freeman in check and force the young signal caller into a couple of turnovers. The Buccaneers may be averaging just 177.2 passing yards per game this season, the insertion of Freeman last week clearly improved Tampa Bay’s passing attack and Miami will need to avoid getting beat deep.
The Dolphins should be able to have their way on the ground against the Buccaneers but it would be a lot easier if the second-year QB Chad Henne could throw the ball more effectively than he has been lately. Henne has been in a big funk lately, throwing just one TD and two interceptions over his last three games while failing to complete 60 percent of his passes in any game during the span.
Analysis: Tampa Bay may be feeling confident after recording their first win of the season last Sunday, but I like the Miami Dolphins to kick one of my favorite ‘old-school’ raps on the Buccaneers in this contest.
You may remember the 2003 hit by Brand Nubian that says, ‘Punks Jump Up To Get Beat Down.’
All jokes aside, I like the Dolphins to put a serious hurting on Tampa Bay in this contest as they look to rebound from their ‘reality check’ loss against New England that was fueled by Porter’s incessant trash-talking.
I think Miami’s 22nd-ranked defense will shut down Tampa Bay’s almost non-existent rushing attack and force the Buccaneers into obvious throwing situations where they can take advantage of Freeman’s inexperience more than the laid-back Packers did last week, particularly if they get an early lead.
I’m also expecting Chad Henne to have a better game than he’s had in quite some time against Tampa Bay’s poor pass defense while leading Miami to their third consecutive ATS cover and fifth payday in their last six games.
Have no fear NFL pro football betting enthusiasts, even if Porter does start his trash-talking later in the week, this time the Dolphins will be able to back it up.
NFL Free Picks: Dolphins -9½ Points
