posted November 19, 2009 at 17:00 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Thursday Night Showdown - Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers
by Dave D

Thursday, November 19th – 8:20 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
NFL Point Spread: Carolina -3, O/U: 42.5
The Miami Dolphins were this close from an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay last week. They needed a last second field goal to squeak by a one-win Buccaneers team, winning 25-23. Chad Henne had a bad day, but made up for by marching Miami 77-yards downfield to set up the winning kick. A confidence booster, perhaps, but for a team that fancies themselves playoff material, they sure didn't look the part last week.
The Carolina Panthers however, are beaming with confidence. Last Sunday they handily defeated division-rival Atlanta Falcons 28-19. More importantly, Jake Delhomme had his third straight game without an interception, after throwing 13 picks in his first six games. The running game is heating up, Steve Smith seems happy again and the Panthers have some of their swagger back. They're primed for a big second half.
What The Dolphins Have To Do To Win
The Dolphins will be playing without running back Ronnie Brown, who is out for the season with an ankle injury. Brown is the heart and soul of the Dolphins “Wildcat” offense and it’s not a stretch to believe Miami will struggle mightily without Brown. Ricky Williams is the starter once again, and is looking healthier and more effective than ever. The Dolphins will have to win this one in a more conventional way, but Henne and Williams have enough talent to pull it off.
What The Panthers Have To Do To Win
It’s no coincidence that with the Panthers improved running game, the pressure has lifted a bit from Delhomme’s shoulders and his play has improved dramatically. The Panthers have the 19th ranked run offense, but recently have been running much more efficiently than that. The duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart are heating up at the right time and keeping the defense off balance, thus giving Delhomme more time to make better decisions. Together the two have 1,320 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns and are averaging 5.0 yards per rush. An effective running game will be key to any future Panthers victory.
Outlook & Pick
The injury to Brown hurts the Dolphins immensely. The Panthers have been playing much better as of late. The Dolphins are coming off a two-point win against a one-win team. Carolina just beat a division rival by a big margin. The Panthers have the bigger momentum, and in a game between two 4-5 teams, sometimes momentum is all you have to go on.
Pick: Panthers -3 & under 42.5
Prop Betting: Team To Score First And Score In First Seven Minutes
There isn’t much evidence to support either team will come out swinging. It will probably be a slow first quarter, with both teams trying to establish their running game and not take many chances in the air. A good bet would to say Ted Ginn Jr. will drop a pass before he catches one.
Prop Betting Pick: Carolina Will Score First, No Score In First Seven Minutes



