NFL Thanksgiving Day Lock Alert – Green Bay at Detroit

(O/U) 47½

November 26, 12:30 PM ET

The Green Bay Packers (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U) have won consecutive games to move two games over .500 and put themselves into position to win of the NFC’s two wild cards berths this season.

However, the team will have to be on its guard to avoid a letdown when they battle the Detroit Lions (2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, 5-5 O/U) in a Thanksgiving day divisional showdown that Detroit will enter feeling very good about itself.

Here’s the 411 on both teams entering this contest, followed by my in-depth analysis on the outcome of this Turkey Day NFC North Divisional battle:

Green Bay Packers

• Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• Packers are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

The Packers narrowly edged the San Francisco 49ers 30-24 in Week 11, but the contest played out for pro football gamblers as a Push against the 6-point NFL point spread.

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Gifted quarterback Aaron Rodgers passed for 344 yards with pair of touchdowns while Ryan Grant rushed 21 times for 129 yards with a touchdown in the win.

The Packers have gone 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS) over its last six games while compiling a 4-2 SU record during the stretch.

Detroit Lions

• Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
• Lions are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC North.

The Lions took part in arguably the most exciting game of the regular season in Week 11, beating the Cleveland Browns 38-37 on the last play of the game.

Detroit failed to cover the NFL point spread as a 3.5-point favorite in the game, but will hit the field on Thanksgiving with their confidence soaring.

Gifted rookie quarterback Matt Stafford passed for 422 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions for Detroit while athletic wideout Calvin Johnson caught seven passes for 161 yards with a touchdown in the win.

• Key Head-to-Head Trends
• Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
• Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Detroit.
• Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit.
• Home team is 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 meetings.

Analysis: I’d really like to see the Lions either pull off the outright upset here or cover the spread at the very least, but that’s just not going to happen against the superior Packers.

The fact of the matter is that Green Bay has looked phenomenal the last two weeks in beating very tough teams in Dallas and San Francisco and has the better team in all three phases (offense, defense, special teams) of this contest.

Nearly all of the key trends for this game point to a convincing win and cover for the Packers with Green Bay going 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings against Detroit, including an impressive 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Detroit.

The Lions will have a shot at covering the spread in this one with the home team in this series going a consistent 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 meetings.