NFL Sportsbook Betting - Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday, November 29 - 1 PM ET

BetUS NFL Football odds: MIAMI -3, Total 40

I think if you look at it a certain way, it is difficult to reconcile laying to many points with the Miami Dolphins in this road situation, because of the fact that its offense, by its very nature, isn't the type that is going to explode and put a lot of distance between itself and its opponents, and Miami is just 5-5 ATS in the NFL sportsbook odds. The receivers drop too many passes, the quarterback is a rookie, and instead of a two-fisted running game, Ricky Williams is having to carry the load in to make up for the loss of the injured Ronnie Brown.

Here are some NFL betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• MIA has won and covered five of its last seven games
• MIA has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
• MIA has covered six of its last eight road games
• MIA has won seven of its last ten road games SU
• MIA has lost 15 of its last 23 road games SU
• MIA has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total
• BUFF has lost six of its last eight games SU
• BUFF has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
• BUFF has lost eight of its last nine home games SU
• BUFF has covered one of its last nine home games
• BUFF has played six of its last seven home games UNDER the total

Also...

• BUFF has covered eight of the last eleven meetings
• Five of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total
• BUFF has won and covered four of the last five meetings as the home team
• Four of the last six meetings in Buffalo have gone UNDER the total

Like I said, that's one way to look at it. There's also another way, and for purposes of this conversation, that's the way I prefer to look at it.

Miami Dolphins -3 vs. Buffalo Bills >> Join Now to Bet

For one thing, Miami, for any of its shortcomings, is something Buffalo is not, which is "functional." When Williams had to carry the load against Carolina, he ran for 119 yards in a road win. He operated the Wildcat offense, taking direct snaps from center. Chad Henne has thrown only one interception in the last four games. The Dolphins can control the football on the ground, they know what the personality of their team needs to be, and they do just that.

They are averaging 156 yards on the ground, and Buffalo, in its last four games, has only 292 yards rushing.

I know that Miami has rookies playing key roles in the secondary, but I also know that Bills wideouts Terrell Owens and Lee Evans have underachieved, and whether it's Trent Edwards or Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills are going to have a low-percentage passer who tosses interceptions. In the last eight games, Buffalo has not exceeded 20 points.

Hey, the Dolphins are well-coached and usually prepared. The Bills are not. There is unrest among the staff, and I don't know how that could possibly have gotten any better with word that Bills executives were visiting with Mike Shanahan in a search for someone permanent.

Because there are more working parts, I can see the Dolphins as a better alternative than the Bills, who have won and covered only one of their last nine home games "at the Ralph." With Miami still incentivized with a shot at the wild card, I'll lay the points with the Dolphins, the three-point favorite.

JAY'S PLAY: MIAMI -3 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)