posted November 22, 2009 at 08:15 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Sports book - San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
by Charles Jay

San Francisco 49ers (4-5 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (5-4 SU & ATS)
Sunday, November 22 -- 1 PM ET
BetUS NFL sportsbook odds: GREEN BAY -6.5, Total 41.5
In the BetUS NFL sports book betting odds, the Packers are listed as a 6.5-point favorite, with a posted total of 41.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
- SF has covered six of its last nine games
- SF has lost four of its last six games SU
- SF is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven road games
- SF has lost 14 of its last 19 road games SU
- SF has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total
- GB has won 17 of its last 25 home games SU
- GB has played 12 of its last 18 home games OVER the total
Also...
- GB has covered five of the last six meetings
- GB has won the last six meetings SU
- Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
- GB has covered four of the last five meetings as the home team
- GB has won the last five meetings SU as the home team
Green Bay Packers bottled up the Dallas running game pretty good last week, holding the Cowboys to just 61 yards. However, if you saw the game, there is certain evidence that they caught Dallas in a flat spot. Still, that was a nice bounce-back for the Packers after losing to Tampa Bay and its first-time starter, Josh Freeman, the week before, which was a big disappointment as it brought the Pack down to the .500 mark in the NFL sports book odds. .
This game puts together quarterbacks who, going into the draft process in 2005, may have had their positions reversed. Alex Smith was the guy who was drafted first overall, while Aaron Rodgers wound up being the guy who sat disappointed in the green room, or wherever those prospective draft picks sit. Well, who is the better quarterback in the NFL? A few seasons, you might have said Smith, but that wouldn't be the answer out of anyone's mouth now, as Rodgers has become a legitimate starter and Green Bay's future. Meanwhile, Smith has been serviceable for the Niners, with a 65% accuracy rate, with 6 TD's and the same number of interceptions, but he has not stepped up to seize the job for the future, although this represents yet another opportunity.
The key for San Francisco in beating NFL sports book odds would seem to be simple - force turnovers, as they did last week against Chicago when they intercepted Jay Cutler five times. That would necessitate getting pressure on the passer, and certainly Green Bay's line invites that, as Rodgers has been sacked 41 times. However, it's kind of a Roethlisberger situation, as Rodgers, despite this, has managed to throw for 2444 yards and 17 TD's. He does it in spite of his line.
San Francisco 49ers has gotten some mileage out of Frank Gore over the last few weeks, as he's had 278 yards during that period. On the year Gore has averaged 5.2 yards a carry, but that is a bit deceiving, in that he has gone off on several touchdown runs (as if that's a bad thing). The Niners have averaged only 102 rushing yards a game, so we know that it's difficult for the "infantry" to close the deal against a Packer defense that allows 3.5 ypc in its 3-4 alignment.
San Francisco can actually do more in its offense with the addition of Crabtree, the insertion of Smith and the emergence of tight end Vernon Davis. Josh Morgan has beaten out Isaac Bruce for one of the wide receiver spots. Sure, the Niners needed those turnovers to pull off a 10-6 win over the Bears, its first in five games, but they have generally been able to keep it close. We'll take the points with the 49ers, the 6.5-point underdog in the BetUS NFL odds.
JAY'S PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO +6.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)



