posted January 12, 2007 at 18:31 EST in NFL Free Picks

New England Patriots (12-4) vs. San Diego Chargers (14-2)
Sunday, January 14th - Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego - 4:30 EST
Betus.com Line: San Diego -4.5 (46.5)

Preview
There’s a rule that most people go by, and it’s that you refrain from betting against Brady and Uncle Bill in the playoffs. However, this weekend is different. The Patriots (12-4) march in to Qualcomm to face the Super Chargers (14-2), who hold the best record in the NFL. The Guru himself will have to pull out all the tricks in order to stop the best running-back of all time, LaDainian Tomlinson.

 

Patriots Offense vs. San Diego Defense
The Patriots go as Tom Brady throws. That’s the obvious part. The part that isn’t so obvious is how Brady’s bunch (the offensive line) will handle one of the most aggressive defensive lines in the AFC.

Shawn Merriman, steroids or not, is an absolute terror. He might demand so much attention that Jamal Williams, the Charger’s star defensive tackle, could spring free up the middle. With Williams and Merriman applying pressure to the backfield, the Patriots hopes will pop like a cheap balloon. The Chargers led the league in sacks this year with 61.

The Chargers, however, are relatively weak in the secondary. They allowed 200.8 yards through the air on average, and are facing a quarterback who makes fantastic decisions. The Patriots averaged 212.5 passing yards per game. Brady proved he can make a superstar out of any receiver (oh admit it, Jabar Gaffney!) and he will have to get in synch with Reche Caldwell or Jabar Gaffney to hurt this Chargers defense.

Don’t expect big things out of Laurence Maroney or Corey Dillon, as the fearsome front-seven of the Chargers is simply too much to handle. And do not get excited about the Patriot’s offensive outburst against the Jets. It was against the Jets – end of story.

San Diego Offense vs. Patriots Defense
Tomlinson is one of those backs that can hurt you in every way possible. He rushes for touchdowns, receives for touchdowns and he even throws for touchdowns. Yes, he has two passing touchdowns this year. Look it up if you don’t believe me!

So the gameplan for the Chargers is to simply get the ball in his hands. The Patriots are a fantastic defense, but they lack speed. They are a lumbering defense that counts on being in the right place at the right time. Tomlinson can expose this defense with his impressive skill set, and Marty Schottenheimer will give him every opportunity to do so.

From there, the ball goes in to Philip Rivers hands, who will be starting his first playoff game as a quarterback. If there’s a worse team to play in your first playoff game, I’d like to meet them. The Chargers gain 203.9 passing yards, and the Patriots give up 200.2 passing yards, so the odds are in Rivers’ favor to have a good day statistically.

 

The danger is in intercpetions. The Patriots rank fifth in the league in interceptions, and are lethal in the secondary with or without star safety, Rodney Harrison (who is out with an injury). Rivers won’t have to win the game on his own, but when his number is called he will deliver the ball assuredly to pro-bowl tight-end Antonio Gates and the youthful wide-receiver, Vincent Jackson.

Trends to Note
-New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
-total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 6 games versus San Diego
-San Diego is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
-San Diego is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games

Final Verdict
The coaching is the x-factor in this game. Bill Belches has the insurmountable task of stopping the unstoppable in Tomlinson. Marty Schottenheimer will do everything he can to limit the Pats passing attack led by Tom Brady.

With the front-seven of San Diego being so dominant, it will put almost all the pressure on Tom Brady to win this game. The Chargers will blitz early on to disrupt Brady’s timing and confidence, and force him in to making mistakes. Meanwhile, the offense will lean heavily on Tomlinson to control the clock and hurt the Patriots in every way he can (which is a lot of ways).

It is hard to bet against the Patriots in the playoffs, but the Chargers are simply too strong of a matchup for them. Uncle Bill may be 7-2 against the league MVP in the playoffs, but he’s about to take a third loss in that streak. Tomlinson and the Chargers have been waiting for their opportunity to earn respect in the playoffs – and they will do so at the expense of the Patriots.

New England – 17
Chargers – 24

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