posted November 15, 2009 at 13:00 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Lock Alert – Reeling Packers Host Streaking Cowboys
Dallas (-3) vs.
Green Bay (+3)
(O/U) 48
Sunday, November 15 4:00 PM ET
The Green Bay (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U) played the stock market last week pro football betting fanatics, ‘selling out’ in their shocking 38-28 road loss to the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Now, riding a two-game losing streak coming into their Week 9 matchups against the red-hot Dallas Cowboys (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U), the Packers will be looking to avoid their third straight loss like the swine flu.
The Cowboys however, have won four consecutive games and certainly won’t just roll over for their NFC counterparts in this matchup.
Let’s take a look at the key trends for this matchup, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NFL Free Picks.
NFL Trends
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
- Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Over is 4- 1 in the last 5 meetings.
Cowboys at a glance
Not only have the Cowboys won four straight, but they’ve covered the spread in three consecutive games as well and are coming off a solid road win at Philadelphia in Week 9. Dallas is averaging 27.1 points per game and holding their opponents to an average of 19.0 points per game.
The Cowboys are ranked eighth in rushing and will need to run the ball effectively against a Packers run defense that ranked ninth against the run, limiting opponents to just 97.1 yards per game on the ground.
Packers at a glance
The Green Day Packers have dropped two straight and three of five, going an identical 2-3 ATS during the span and are averaging 26.9 points per game while giving up 21.5 points per contest.
For the Packers to have a chance in this contest, they will have to slow down Dallas’ ‘seven in the box’ which has routinely stopped the run while getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks with increasing regularity. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay while completing just 48.6 percent of his passes, so slowing down the ‘Boys up front will be absolutely crucial in this contest.
The Winner is …
I like the Cowboys to win and cover the NFL point spread on the road in this matchup by pressuring Rodgers unmercifully and forcing at least two turnovers from the struggling Packers.
Dallas quarterback Tony Romo has been very solid during the Cowboys’ winning streak, throwing nine touchdowns and just one interception during the span.
If the Cowboys can run the ball effectively, thereby keep Green Bay’s defense honest and keeping the pressure off of Romo, I like the ‘Boys to win outright and cover.
