posted January 5, 2007 at 20:08 EST in NFL Free Picks

New York Jets (10-6) vs. New England Patriots (12-4)
Sunday, January 9th, Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, 1:00pm EST
Opening Line: Patriots -8.5 (38)

Preview
The Patriots (12-4) presence in these playoffs is surprising to say the least. They said goodbye to their star receiver, Deion Branch, and watched as the division rival Dolphins loaded up on talent. While the Dolphins sank, the Patriots remained steady behind Coach Bill Belichik and quarterback Tom Brady.

Instead, the Patriots will be welcoming another division rival to Foxboro – the New York Jets (10-6). Led by new head coach, Eric Mangini, the Jets surged in to the playoffs. Mangini, interestingly enough, is one of Belichik’s disciples.

This game will be a battle of wits between the game’s best coach and a pupil trying to outfox his own teacher.

Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense
The Patriots defense took a massive blow when they learned that star safety Rodney Harrison will be sidelined for the game. Still, Belichik and the boys have won despite injuries in the past. What will be more of a concern for the Jets is the battle in the trenches.

 

Patriot’s defensive-end, Richard Seymour, is an absolute monster that can overwhelm offensive lines and pressure quarterbacks. Chad Pennington, the quarterback of the Jets, possesses limited mobility. He will be counting on rookie D’Brickashaw Ferguson to protect him throughout the game. That is not a favorable matchup for the Jets.

When Pennington is given time to throw, he will look to Laverneus Coles, the playmaker for the Jets. Pennington’s shoulder has survived two surgeries, so the key to this game will be getting the ball to Coles with short throws and allowing him to wrestle for yards after the catch.

Pennington will succeed if the Jets can get in to a rhythm and Mangini runs the no-huddle offense that can catch New England off guard. The Jets running game will be a non-factor against the Eagles’ fifth best rushing defense, which only allows 94.2 yards per game.

Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense.
The Patriots are a lot more dangerous on offense than they look on paper. They possess two smash-mouth running backs and the one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Tom Brady. Beyond that, they are led by a fearless guru Belichick, who has thrived in the playoffs despite a lack of talent.

The running game for the Patriots will be at the forefront in this game. The Jets rank 24th against the run, allowing 130.3 yards per game.

Rookie tailback Laurence Maroney will be the key to the Patriots. His explosive running style has proved dangerous in the NFL, and you can say ‘goodnight’ when he gets into the open field. When they get close to the goal line, the Patriots will hand the ball to Corey Dillon, who plays like he still has a grudge against God himself.

Tom Brady has not been the golden boy of years past, but he has gotten the job done. His receiving corps has been mediocre, with wide-receiver Reche Caldwell and tight-end Benjamin Watson getting the majority of the receptions. Watson, however, is questionable with a knee injury that has kept him out the past three games.

The only hope for the Jets on defense is to allow linebacker Jonathan Vilma to get to Tom Brady. The Jets lack sufficient size and aggressiveness on the defensive line, so Vilma will be limited. However, look for the Jets to blitz Brady when he throws in an effort to force him to make mistakes.

 

Unfortunately for the Jets, Brady doesn’t make many mistakes in the playoffs.

Trends to Note
-Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
-total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games
-Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against New England
-total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 6 when the Jets visit New England

Final Verdict
The Jets lack the playmakers on the defensive side of the football. Belichik will control the clock by running the ball with Maroney and Dillon, while Brady will force the secondary to be honest.

The Jets have had a nice run throughout this season, but the Patriots are kings when it comes to the playoffs. Furthermore, the Patriots outmatch the Jets in almost every statistical category.

Look for Pennington to keep this low scoring game tight, but the powerful running game of New England will rule on Sunday.

Jets – 17
Patriots – 20

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