posted November 19, 2009 at 13:00 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Betting Odds - Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers
by Charles Jay
Thursday, November 19 - 8:20 PM ET
BetUS NFL betting odds: CAROLINA -3, Total 42.5
In the BetUS NFL betting odds, the Panthers are listed as a three-point favorite, with a posted total of 42.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
- MIA has won and covered four of its last six games
- MIA has played five of its last six games OVER the total
- MIA has covered eight of its last 11 road games
- MIA has won six of its last nine road games SU
- MIA has lost 15 of its last 22 road games SU
- MIA has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total
- CAR has covered four of its last five games
- CAR has won four of its last six games SU
- CAR has covered one of its last five home games
- CAR has won ten of its last 13 home games SU
- CAR has played 14 of its last 20 home games UNDER the total
Of all the teams in the NFL, these are the two who probably rely on the running attack the most in terms of their very basic philosophy. Carolina is third in the league, averaging 156.6 yards a game on the ground, while Miami averages 156.2. These teams run more than they pass, which is rare these days in the NFL.
They have to do it to stand a chance in the NFL betting odds. The Dolphins are last in the league in passing yards, with 160 a game; well, that is, unless you truly want to count the Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns, both scoring less than ten points a game, as true members of the NFL.
Ronnie Brown, who has injuries to his ankle and foot, is not going to play here and he may not, in fact, play for the rest of the season. That is a huge blow for Miami, not only because he is their best back, but because he is the player who consistently makes the Wildcat package go. Rookie Pat White, who should someday develop into someone who can be a threat there on a regular basis, hasn't shown enough yet to make us very confident.
I must say, Ricky Williams looked a little nervous about assuming the load in this offense. He hasn't taken an every-down pounding for a while; for years, really. Does this mean that Chad Henne (58%, 5 TD's, 4 INT's) is going to carry an extra burden as well?
The Panthers have the most potentially damaging rushing attack in the NFL. Between DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, they're averaging five yards a carry. There was 185 more yards last week, and that makes it 204 yards a game over the last five. Jordan Gross is going to be out of this game, but it's not as if the Panthers are going to be using a rookie at left tackle. Travelle Wharton is a six-year veteran who has started a lot of games in this league.
Jake Delhomme has undergone a transformation of sorts; he's gone without being intercepted the last three games and has completed 57% of his passes. There is the possibility that the no-huddle offense, which was successful last week, will make another appearance.
Carolina, after losing the first three games amid a flood of turnovers, has rebounded to win four of its last next games. Now it gets interesting. We're sticking with the Panthers, the three-point favorite in the BetUS NFL betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: CAROLINA -3 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)



