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posted November 1, 2009 at 11:00 EST in NFL Free Picks

NFL Betting Odds - Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

Denver Broncos (6-0 SU & ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS)

Sunday, November 1 - 1 PM ET

BetUS NFL betting odds:  BALTIMORE -3, Total 41.5

In the BetUS NFL betting odds, the Ravens are listed as a three-point favorite, with a posted total of 41.5 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

  • DEN has covered its last six games
  • DEN has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
  • DEN has won and covered six of its last eight road games
  • BALT has covered 15 of its last 20 games
  • BALT has won 14 of its last 20 games SU
  • BALT has won and covered six of its last eight home games
  • BALT has played five of its last six home games UNDER the total

Also...

  • BALT has covered five of the last six meetings
  • DEN has covered 12 of the last 18 meetings
  • BALT has won four of the last six meetings SU
  • DEN has won 15 of the last 21 meetings SU
  • Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
  • DEN has covered six of the last nine meetings as the road team
  • Five of the last seven meetings in Baltimore have gone UNDER the total

After three games where the offense was looking rather spiffy, and Baltimore averaged 34 points, the Ravens have slipped, dropping three straight games, two of them in the NFL betting odds, including a home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, before their bye week.

Joe Flacco is throwing the ball with a lot more impunity and has completed 64% of his passes for 1674 yards. Ray Rice has been a great addition to the offense, and he's really made his presence known in this, his second season. Rice leads the team in both rushing (441 yards, 6 ypc) and receiving (33 catches). he also leads the entire NFL with 766 yards from scrimmage.

Five different receivers have had at least 250 yards. The Ravens are converting 45.5% of the time they have had a third down. A lot of things are going well.

Then again, there are some things that aren't going so well for them. The defense has sprung a few leaks, allowing at least 400 yards in each of the last two games, including a total of 309 rushing yards in losses to the Vikings and Bengals. After a period of 39 games without doing it, they have allowed 100-yard rushers in consecutive weeks.

The secondary is really allowing opposing quarterbacks' throws to count, as it is yielding 8.22 yards an attempt. This is unusual for a Baltimore defense. With 14 sacks, they haven't been horrible, but they are not the same neighborhood with some other teams, including Denver.

The Broncos have been nothing short of sensational, and you can't say they haven't won any meaningful games on the road, as they have not only beaten Cincinnati in the season opener, but also took an eleven-point victory over the San Diego Chargers IN Qualcomm Stadium.

Denver has allowed eleven points a game, and has not allowed a second-half touchdown in any of the last five games they've played. Opposing offenses have converted just 27% of their third downs. They've yielded just 3.3 yards a rush, and are outgaining their foes by over a hundred yards a game. They have 21 sacks, and one of the top guys in the league in that category, Elvis Dumervil (10). Denver has forced the opposition to gain 23.9 yards for every point it has scored. They have covered every game in the NFL betting odds.

Interestingly, Kyle Orton, who was seen as a possible liability at the season's outset, has turned out to be quite an asset. Orton has been a 64% passer, throwing just one interception against nine touchdown passes. His per-attempt average is higher than Flacco, who has opened up the Baltimore offense.

Obviously a team demonstrating more fundamental prowess and with an undefeated record looms attractive when getting the points. However, a Baltimore team that is desperate at this point and really isn't that far from having a much better record (the three losses have been by 11 total points) might just be the biggest test for Denver to date.

I have a lot of respect for John Harbaugh and his ability to address issues of concern, and I am looking for a bigger effort than Baltimore has turned in all year. We're laying the points with the Ravens, the three-point favorite in the BetUS NFL betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY:  BALTIMORE -3 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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