posted November 15, 2009 at 13:00 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Betting Lines - Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
by Charles Jay

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) at
New York Jets (4-4 SU & ATS)
Sunday, November 15 - 1 PM ET
In the football betting lines, the Jets are listed as a seven-point favorite, with a posted total of 40.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
- JAX has covered one of its last five games
- JAX has won four of its last six games SU
- JAX has lost ten of its last 15 games SU
- JAX has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
- JAX has covered two of its last seven road games
- JAX has lost six of its last seven road games SU
- JAX has played six of its last seven road games UNDER the total
- NY has covered one of its last five games
- NY has lost four of its last five games SU
- NY has played four of its last six games OVER the total
- NY has covered two of its last seven home games
- NY has played six of its last nine home games OVER the total
Also...
- JAX has covered the last five meetings
- JAX has won four of the last five meetings SU
The Jets started things off so promising, with consecutive wins in the over Houston, New England and Tennessee, but things have gone downhill. Hey, they haven't deteriorated; in fact, you could reasonably argue that they should have beaten Miami twice and the Bills in an overtime home loss that was a real back-breaker.
Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has been wild in only a couple of games, where he has thrown things away against the Saints and Bills. Losing a couple of key performers hasn't helped the Jets' cause. The guys in question are Leon Washington, the third down back and return man, and another Pro Bowler, defensive tackle Kris Jenkins.
The Jets would certainly seem to have an edge in what they can do down the field. Sanchez has Jerricho Cotchery back in the lineup, and it appears Braylon Edwards is a key acquisition. The opposition has gained just 5.5 yards a pass against New York, and the general consensus is that Jacksonville, with David Garrard at the helm, is not as equipped to push it for long distances. A lot of it will be up to Maurice Jones-Drew, who has indeed been a fantasy hero, with 737 yards and up over five yards a carry.
Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio is trying all kinds of things to get some pressure on the passer, including switching back to a 4-3 alignment. His team has been a bitter disappointment with its grand total of eight sacks, which has a direct effect on how many takeaways this team produces as well (just five interceptions). Does that give Sanchez a little extra time to work with? Sure it does.
As we're evaluating this for the NFL betting lines, logic dictates that with Jones-Drew, the Jags should be able to keep this game close. However, Rex Ryan will put something together to stack the line and make Garrard win the game. Mike Sims-Walker, who has four of J-Ville's six TD receptions this year, had 147 yards against Kansas City last week, but something tells me it will be more problematic to weave his way through the Jets' secondary.
We wish we trusted Jacksonville more as a road club, but we don't. They've lost by margins of 41 and 17 points the last two times they've traveled, and they catch a team off four losses in five games coming out of a bye week with a coach who is known to crack the whip.
With Thomas Jones, the wideouts, and an aggressive stop unit, the Jets may just have enough octane to pull this off, as far as the NFL betting lines are concerned. We'll lay the points with the Jets, the seven-point favorite at BetUS.
JAY'S PLAY: N.Y. JETS -7 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)



