posted November 22, 2009 at 11:00 EST in NFL Free Picks
NFL Betting Line - San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
by Tim Furious
San Diego Looks to Move Past Denver IN Standings
No matter who takes center for Denver, this is a perfect game for San Diego to continue their sudden surge of momentum. Kyle Orton’s ankle is a serious concern for the Broncos. Serious enough, at least, to warrant a game-time decision. That means that either a hobbling and outright panicked Orton will take the snaps, or that duty will be given to Chris Simms who is three-years removed from his last start with Tampa Bay. Either way, that’s a good thing for San Diego.
The Chargers walk in to Denver with a 4-1 SU record over 5 games and a 5-1-1 ATS record when playing the Broncos. The key to their offense has always been LaDanian Tomlinson, and with the news of his wife’s pregnancy, Tomlinson looks like he’s back to focusing on football. A two-touchdown performance Philadelphia was enough to convince me. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates’ mere presence makes life that much easier for LDT, even though he’ll be facing the 11th ranked defense in the league when it comes to passing and rush defense. Denver gives up 199.5 aerial yards and 99.3 rush yards when playing at home.
The thing is that, for Denver, this is a curtain call for them. Either they answer the bell and thwart one of the NFL’s most potent offenses, or they are hanging up their cleats and playoff hopes on a peg. Denver is not just about Kyle Orton or the quarterback in general. This is a team that has relied on defense much of the way, which is why they rank just fourth in points allowed. Ty Law, Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins make up one of the most decorated and efficient secondaries in the league.
San Diego Chargers (6-3) vs. Denver Broncos (6-3)
Sunday, November 22nd --- INVESCO Field, Denver --- 4:15pm EST
NFL Betting Line: Pending Kyle Orton Update
>> Join now to bet on Chargers vs Broncos
But it’s hard to get the thought of three straight losses, where they averaged 28.3 points against and just 11.7 points per game. San Diego is on fire right now, boasting the sixth most prolific scoring offense in the league and a defense that has found a bit of a groove. My problem with San Diego’s defense is that they let up defensively when their offense gets going.
For some reason, I just don’t trust San Diego on the road. I know they have a strong history against the betting line in Denver, but I’m staying true to my worries about hopping on the Chargers’ bandwagon too early. A domineering victory over Broncos will seal my confidence in them, but I think Denver’s defense is being underrated right now and I’m looking for them to cause a big win. Rivers thrives in December, and he’ll have to when the Broncos hand him a loss.
I’d take the home team with the natural line of -3, and I’d stay away from them if this approached -5.5. Considering the quarterback worries and everything else against Denver, I don’t think that’s happening. If they’re home dogs, you’re jumping all over this game.
