posted November 30, 2009 at 19:05 EST in NFL Free Picks
Monday Night Football Betting – Patriots vs. Saints (-1.5)
by Tim Furious
The New England Patriots have a second opportunity to ruin a perfect season after botching the first try against Indianapolis. As I’ve said, the truth about the loss to Peyton Manning and the Colts is that only New England really stands in New England’s way if a championship is really in the mix. The Patriots are firmly in control in AFC East betting futures at 7-3 SU, but a loss to the Saints will only stain their reputation as a Super Bowl contender.
The trends in this game are unreal. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 4-2 ATS in their last 6 on the road. Ranking third in overall scoring with 29.0 points and fifth in road passing with 274.0 yards per game certainly boosts betting confidence when you’re facing the 13th ranked home pass defense in the league. Saving face in the wake of the loss to Indy also lends credence to a “revenge game” for Brady and Uncle Bill.
New Orleans is not without some betting favor of their own. They’re 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home stands. On top of that they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against New England dating back to their last meeting in 2005. The Saints have faced all types of games this season too. They’ve come from behind, held the fort and demolished teams en route to boasting the league’s best offense with 36.9 points per game, 307.6 passing yards and 132.8 yards of ground pounding with Bell, Bush and Thomas rushing the ball.
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In short, this is every football fan’s dream match. It’s a potential Super Bowl preview, a perfection buster and a battle of the best offenses in the league. That also makes it a betting man’s worst nightmare.
New England Patriots (7-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (10-0)
Monday, November 30th --- Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans --- 8:30pm EST
NFL Betting Line: New Orleans -1.5 (56.5)
There’s a lot to like about New Orleans in this game, but none more so than the variety of weapons that they boast. Robert Meachem, for one, is becoming a red zone favorite for Brees and it’s no wonder when the former Tennessee stand out clocks in at 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds with reliable hands. Flanking Meachem will be the ever-talented Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and David Thomas. The Saints boast nine players who have been on the receiving end of passing touchdowns from Gentle Brees.
Cap that off with a rushing attack that has three dynamic rushers and you’ve got an offense that is downright terrifying to play at home. Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell have combined for fourteen rushing touchdowns and the give the Saints the value of variety at the goal line. PT Cruiser and Bell can crash up the middle, or Reggie can zip to the outside.
Should that scare the Patriots? Not really. With Randy Moss and Wes Welker forming the best receiving duo in football, there’s not much to worry about, especially when all-world Tom Brady is hurling the pigskin their way.
What I would worry about for if you’re a Patriots sports betting enthusiast is the penchant of the ground game to serve as a letdown. Laurence Maroney has just 455 yards gained this season and has lost two fumbles, including a costly cough up against Indy in the endzone. Mistakes on the field, and in the coaching calls, have been the bane of the Patriots’ very existence, and playing on the road in front of a blood thirsty, Big Easy crowd that will be drunk out of their skulls will be belittling if anything.
The x-factor I also hate in this game is Tom Brady’s queasy performances in prime time. The Super Bowls notwithstanding, regular season games at night haven’t been Brady’s forte. This season alone, the Patriots almost lost to the Bills on the opening Monday Night and had their little hearts trampled on by Peyton Manning on Sunday Night. It’s a weird thing to think about, but Brady is just not the same when the sun goes down. He’s like a reverse werewolf.
I’m taking both defenses to blow their collective loads here and allow a crap load of points on the board. The OVER is the easy bet. The hard part is picking which side of the betting line you’re lining up against. New Orleans’ secondary isn’t incredible, but it’s certainly vindictive. The buffet of receivers that Brees has at his disposal, New Orleans’ savvy habit of winning games under any circumstances, and New England’s disastrous decision making against Indy have me swinging towards the French Quarter boys on Monday Night.
It’s not usually safe to bet against Uncle Bill when he has a chance to win back the respect he lost on a terrible decision, but it’s even more hazardous to side with a team that has been bitten by the jaws of their own mistakes against a team that has refused to lose all season.
