posted November 10, 2006 at 20:36 EST in NFL Free Picks

After going 2-2 last week I’m not going to resort to flipping a coin just yet – I figure some fine tuning and I’m ready to rock in Week 10. I mean who expected Dallas to lose to a Washington Redskins team that was in a tailspin – I don’t care if the attempt was blocked, I don’t think Mike Vanderjagt will ever make a clutch field goal again. It’s been a wild season so far and at 2-6 the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are tanking fast – if they don’t win this weekend their season is over. The Bears-Giants game is looking like a mid-season classic that will determine the balance of power in the NFC. Good luck to the boys in the huddle - Mr. Butterfield and Mr. Oxley.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +4.5 vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS -4.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers ugly play this season is really hard to fathom. At 2-6 their record matches the worst for a defending Super Bowl champion since Denver in 1999 (the Broncos finished that dismal season 6-10). Every week I expect them to make adjustments but the same mistakes continue to happen. Last week the Steelers may have hit rock bottom when Ben Roethlisberger added three more interceptions to his league-leading 14 and the Steelers managed to fumble six times – Pittsburgh leads the NFL with 24 turnovers! Big Ben did manage to throw for 433 yards but out of pure desperation. After the game frustrated running back Willie Parker criticized the team for losing the hunger that won them the Super Bowl last February. Meanwhile, the Saints will try to match their best start after nine games in 14 years. Drew Brees has been a savior enjoying four 300-yard games while throwing for 2,206 yards and 14 touchdowns. Rookie Marques Colston has caught 44 passes for 700 yards including 11 receptions for 123 yards last week against Tampa Bay. He is tied with Torry Holt for the league lead with seven touchdown grabs. Could things really get any worse in Pittsburgh?

PREDICTION: Saints to cover

 

ST. LOUIS RAMS +3 vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3

If the Seattle Seahawks could emerge 6-3 with offensive stars Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck ready to return to play in Week 11, I’m sure despite all the stress, Coach Mike Holmgren would be ecstatic. Seneca Wallace has done a reasonable job filling in for Hasselbeck and last week went 18-30 for 176 yards and a touchdown while adding 49 yards on the ground. Wallace must continue to get the ball to playmakers Deion Branch and Darrell Jackson like he has done the last couple weeks. The Rams run defense is giving up 141 yards a game which is great news for running back Maurice Morris. Before a 138-yard breakout game against the Oakland Raiders porous run defense, Morris was averaging less than 3.0 yards a carry. Rams quarterback Mark Bulger is having an unbelievable season so far throwing for 2,300 yards, 13 touchdowns, only one interception with a passer rating of 102.1; ditto for Steven Jackson who has rushed for 691 yards, 4.1 yards a carry and has 41 receptions. The Rams problems are clearly on the defensive side of the ball where they are giving up 24.6 points a game. The Rams will focus on trying to stop the run while pressuring Seneca Wallace into some mistakes. Seattle’s defense will need to have a great game or this game could turn in to a shootout.

PREDICTION: Rams to cover

CHICAGO BEARS (PK) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (PK)

The Bears shocking blowout loss at home against the Dolphins last week may have exposed a weakness that the Giants defense will want to test. Quarterback Rex Grossman has shown an alarming tendency to throw the ball carelessly up for grabs when he is under pressure. Miami’s game plan was effective and led to multiple Bears turnovers. Giants defensive coordinator Tim Lewis will try to duplicate this blueprint but will likely be missing defensive end Michael Strahan as well as Osi Umenyiora, Brandon Short and Sam Madison. The Bears will run Thomas Jones to loosen up the Giants defense and Grossman will look for Muhsin Muhammad, tight end Desmond Clark and Mark Bradley who will fill in for the injured Bernard Berrian. In his declared final season Tiki Barber has been phenomenal leading the league with 830 rushing yards while averaging 4.8 yards a carry. The Giants have lost Amani Toomer for the season but there are still plenty of targets for Eli Manning to connect with downfield. This is a big game for both teams that will define the balance of power in the NFC. Turnovers will be a factor and the team that loses fewer will win this tight game.

PREDICTION: Giants to win

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +9.5 vs. CAROLINA PANTHERS -9.5

After a bye week the Carolina Panthers return needing a win to try to keep pace in the competitive NFC South. At 4-4 they are two games behind the revitalized New Orleans Saints and a game behind the Falcons. Julius Peppers and the Panthers’ defensive front will focus on pressuring rookie Bruce Gradkowski while taking advantage of a Bucs offensive line that features rookie tackle Jeremy Trueblood and rookie guard Davin Joseph. The Bucs are struggling to run the ball effectively averaging 82.8 yards a game while Cadillac Williams is only gaining 3.7 a carry. Tampa Bay needs to run the ball to give Gradkowski a chance to look downfield for Joey Galloway and tight end Alex Smith. Tampa Bay’s defense is showing signs of age and they are not creating turnovers where they are -3 on the season. Simeon Rice only has two sacks. The Panthers running game will get a boost with the return of rookie DeAngelo Williams who is averaging 5.3 yards a carry. Jake Delhomme will look for dynamic receiver Steve Smith while Keyshawn Johnson had 97 receiving yards and a touchdown last time these teams played back in Week 3.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers to cover

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Marc Reichertz is a freelance columnist and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker room.