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posted November 15, 2009 at 09:15 EST in NFL Free Picks

Falcons in Must Win Situation

Bookmark and Share by Tim Furious

Falcons Need To Beat Carolina To Stay In Playoff Hunt

When the Falcons visit Raleigh this weekend, the fans of the Sex Panthers will get to see what a real franchise quarterback looks like. Sure, Jake Delhomme took his boys to the Super Bowl but that seems like eons ago. We’re now looking at a team that’s lost to Buffalo. I don’t care how well you do for the rest of the year, if you lose to Buffalo you don’t deserve any NFL betting backers!

Carolina looked as if they were going to post a huge upset over New Orleans, but then went completely lifeless for three quarters and zombied their way to a 20-30 loss. But hey, at least they now have a 3-2 ATS record. The problem for Carolina, besides Jake Delhomme overall, is that they’re just 1-4 ATS at home and have a 3-5-1 ATS record against Atlanta.

The Falcons righted the ship (sort of) after two bad losses to New Orleans and Dallas by decimating Washington 31-17. This is a team that is a betting backer’s best friend right now, with a 4-1 ATS record in hand and a +4.5 point differential to boot. Matt Ryan looks like he’s on the verge of being incredibly prolific, but I’m talking about 2011 or 2012. For now, however, he’s a much better bet than Jake Delhomme.

Atlanta Falcons (5-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-5)

Sunday, November 15th --- Bank of America Stadium, Raleigh --- 1:00pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Atlanta -1.5 (43.5)

So while it’s obvious I’m siding with the Dirty Birds in this game, the real question is whether I think that this game will hit the OVER and going UNDER in 5-of-5 when Atlanta plays Carolina. Truth is that that’s the same total from the last game, and it went O-V-E-R. While Jake isn’t a winner, the offense isn’t as abysmal as it used to be. Atlanta’s road rushing defense is 27th in the league with 96.0 yards against, so there’ll be room for DeAngelo Williams to get outside and break one off in the endzone. Count on these NFC teams battling it out to the tune of the OVER with Atlanta putting Carolina in a hole they didn’t expect to be in after going 12-4 SU last season.

Furious Free Pick: Atlanta -1.5 (OVER)

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