Expect ‘Real’ Jags to Show Up Against Surprising Bills

The Buffalo Bills (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U) backed up their offseason talk of reaching the postseason in a big way in their season opener, beating the pants off the Seattle Seahawks 34-10 at home.

This week, the Bills will face an even stiffer test when they hit the road to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U) one of my favorite contenders to win the AFC title in 2008.

While the Jaguars fell in their season opener, losing on the road to the Tennessee Titans 17-10, the Bills looked like they were in midseason form in dismantling the Seahawks, an NFC title contender this season.

Quarterback Trent Edwards completed just 19-of-30 passes for 215 yards and one touchdown, but the Bills dominated the game from beginning to end with solid contributions all around.

Running back Marshawn Lynch picked up 76 yards on 18 carries with one touchdown and Edwards hooked up with receivers Lee Evans and Robert Royals for two deep pass plays and 154 combined yards with one touchdown.

I won’t even get into Roscoe Parrish’s highlight reel 63-yard punt return touchdown and how he made half of the Seahawks on the field look completely silly, I’ll just say the Bills totally dominated and leave it at that.

While the Bills were playing fast and free in their rout of Seattle, the Jaguars had a different story in their loss to the Titans which I correctly predicted in the BetUS Sportsbook last week.

Jacksonville vaunted rushing attack which led all of football last season, saw running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew carry the ball a combined 14 times for a grand total of 31 yards.

Quarterback David Garrard completed 23-of-35 passes for 215 yards but threw two interceptions and was sacked a whopping seven times.

While Jacksonville’s normally stout defense harassed Titans quarterback Vince Young into two interceptions of his own, the Jaguars did give up 93 yards to Chris Johnson and another 40 to LenDale White while allowing Titans receiver Bo Scaife to make one long pass play while picking up 105 yards receiving.

Here is a look at some of the key trends for each club, followed by my analysis and NFL Betting Free Picks.

The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

The Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games in Week 2.

The Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

The Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games in Week 2.

The Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games following a S.U. loss.

NFL Odds

Buffalo Bills +5½ -110

Jacksonville Jaguars -5½ -110

Over 37 -110

Under 37 -110

Analysis: The Buffalo Bills were very impressive against the Seahawks at home last week, but have a huge task on their hands this week in the form of an angry Jaguars team that should be riled up in their home opener after falling to the Titans last week.

The Bills could be a legitimate playoff participant this season, but they will go down in this contest valiantly. Take the Jaguars to eke out a close cover against Buffalo in this matchup.

NFL Free Pick: Jaguars 27 Bills 21