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posted October 11, 2008 at 11:00 in NFL Free Picks

Desperate Chargers Look to Right Ship against Suddenly Mediocre Patriots

by Eric Williams

While the New England Patriots, (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U) beat the lowly San Francisco 49ers 30-21 on Sunday to cover as 3-point road favorites in the BetUS Sportsbook, they will undoubtedly have a much tougher task on their hands this week.

That’s right BetUS Locker Room readers, the Patriots will be facing a San Diego Chargers, (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U) that is in full-blown desperation mode after losing to the Miami Dolphins 17-10 on the road last week to fall to 2-3 on the season while also failing to cover a 6.5-point road favorites.

The Patriots beat the Niners handily as backup quarterback Matt Cassel completed 22 of 32 passes for 259 yards for one touchdown. Cassel was picked off twice and sacked a whopping five time, to raise that total to a whopping 15, third most in the league.

New England also got two rushing touchdowns from veteran running back Kevin Falk, who rushed seven times for 32 yards.

The Pats will visit the desperate Chargers in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship title tilt, but both teams look nothing like the teams that left the field that day.

While the Pats have a legitimate excuse with all-world starting quarterback Tom Brady lost for the season, the Chargers don’t have much of one, though the team did lose All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman for the season as well.

However, I’m sensing a bit of the old Norv Turner syndrome creeping into San Diego as every Turner –led team, prior to last season’s Chargers, underachieved immensely under the mild-mannered offensive genius.

While the Bolts did recover from a similar 2-3 start last season to win its second straight AFC West title, something just doesn’t seem right about this year’s team.

"Make no mistake about it: This is a critical time for our football team," Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson said. "These next (three games) before the bye are very critical for us. To me, this is going to determine what type of team we're going to be this year."

Tomlinson has run for only 331 yards through five games and was held to just 35 yards on 12 carries against a suddenly powerful Miami defense.

"We've been down this road and found a way to win these games in the second half," San Diego coach Norv Turner said. "But we weren't able to get it done (Sunday)."

Tomlinson sounded much more urgent than Turner in reiterating the importance of winning this contest against the team that knocked them out of the postseason each of the last two seasons.

"It's very critical, crucial, whatever you want to call it. To me, it's definitely a must-win for us," Tomlinson added.

Here is a look at the key betting trends for each team, followed by my in-depth analysis and NFL Free Picks:

Patriots

New England is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games

New England is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games

New England is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games on the road

New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road

New England is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Diego

Chargers

San Diego is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 games

San Diego is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games

San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games

San Diego is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

San Diego is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games at home

NFL Odds

New England Patriots +5½ -110

San Diego Chargers -5½ -110

Over 44½ -110

Under 44½ -110

Analysis: Duh, this pick is a no-brainer. Take the Chargers to roll all over the struggling New England Patriots, who should have gone out and gotten another backup quarterback by now!

NFL Free Picks: Chargers -5½ Points/Over 44½ Total Points

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