posted November 15, 2009 at 16:15 EST in NFL Free Picks
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers from Lambeau Field
Game-day: 11/15/2009
Kick-off: 4:15 pm EST
The Dallas Cowboys have won four games in a row. In those victories, the ‘Boys have played outstanding defense and even better offense. Quarterback Tony Romo has thrown for 9 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Those are pretty impressive numbers for a QB that many had listed as overrated after the third week of the NFL season.
None of the victories during the streak was as impressive as last Sunday’s when the Cowboys went into Philadelphia and beat the rival Eagles 20 to 16 as 3 point road underdogs. The Cowboys usually have issues with Philadelphia. None of those issues were apparent as the ‘Boys D shut down Donovan McNabb and the Eagles offense.
Now, Dallas travels to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys are a 3 point road favorites to beat a Packers’ squad that has lost two games in a row. Green Bay failed miserably at home in Brett Favre’s first return to Lambeau as a Minnesota Viking, 38 to 26. As 3 ½ point favorites, Green Bay was supposed to at least be competitive against the Vikings, but as the score indicates, Favre and that Minnesota offense dominated Green Bay’s defense.
It got worse last Sunday as the Packers lost to one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38 to 28 on the road. Green Bay was a 9 ½ point favorite in that game.
The Packers won’t be favorites over the Cowboys this Sunday, but will they be competitive? Also, do they have a chance to upset the super confident ‘Boys at home?
Below is the NFL sportsbook betting line for this game.
| Dallas Cowboys | -3 -105 | -150 | O 47 ½ -110 |
| Green Bay Packers | +3 -115 | +130 | U 47 ½ -110 |
Here are some of the trends for this game.
- The Dallas Cowboys are 3 and 7 against the spread in their last 10 games on the road.
- The Dallas Cowboys are 6 and 2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
- The Green Bay Packers are 2 and 5 against the spread in their last 7 games at home.
- The Green Bay Packers are 4 and 1 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread loss.
Now, let’s take a look at how the offenses and defenses matchup.
Cowboys’ Offense versus Packers’ Defense
Dallas’s offense is almost just as good as Indianapolis’s and New Orleans’. Actually, some NFL fans no doubt believe that the Cowboys have a better offense than either the Colts or the Saints.
The Cowboys average 405 yards per game. Out of the 405 yards, 266 are through the air and 138 are on the ground. That makes the ‘Boys deadly in both phases of their offensive game. Try to stop Romo and he hands the ball off to Tashard Choice and Marion Barber for big chunks of yardage on the ground. Stop the running game and Romo will kill you with pinpoint passes to Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin.
The key, of course, is Tony Romo. If he plays well, then the Cowboys succeed with flying colors. If he doesn’t, Dallas will fail. Lately, Romo has been close to perfect, but if history is any indication that could change at a moment’s notice.
Green Bay’s defense shouldn’t be capable of stopping Dallas’s offense. Although ranked 4th in the league, the stats surrounding Green Bay’s D are deceiving. Green Bay has been brilliant defensively against Detroit and Cleveland but when facing a good quarterback like Brett Favre or Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer, the Packers have given up a lot of points. The Bengals put up 31 against them and the Packers put up 30 in one game and 38 in another.
Romo has a lot of weapons at his disposal. The Packers’ defense should get exploited in this game.
Cowboy’s Defense versus Packers’ Offense
Dallas’s defense doesn’t have a great ranking, 20th out of 32 teams, but it’s been exceptional at times during the winning streak. The Cowboys’ D held Atlanta QB Matt Ryan to 198 yards passing with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Then, facing Donovan McNabb and the Eagles, the Cowboys’ D stepped it up big time. Dallas kept McNabb to 227 yards and 2 interceptions. Now, Dallas faces another top quarterback in the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay’s signal caller, save for a terrible outing against Tampa Bay last Sunday, has been a better than decent QB in 2009. His overall QB rating is 103.3. He’s thrown for 2255 yards and 16 touchdowns already this season. When he’s seeing the field well, Rodgers is one of the top quarterbacks in the league. When he isn’t, he can make some serious mistakes.
Dallas’s D can really step it up, but they usually take a game off after a stellar performance. After shutting down Matt Ryan, the Cowboy defenders allowed Seattle’s Matt Hasslebeck to torch them for 249 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions.
After playing so well against Donovan McNabb and the Eagles last Sunday, a let down might be in store for the Cowboys’ D.
The Best Football Bet Is…
The Green Bay Packers on the NFL moneyline at +130 odds.
Green Bay is due for a good game and Aaron Rodgers is too good of a quarterback to play two sub par games in a row. He should bounce back against Dallas while Dallas could suffer a let down after such an important victory against Philadelphia last week.
Dallas is the better team, but Green Bay gets to play the Cowboys at home and Green Bay’s offense should be able to put up points against Dallas’s D. Also, Tony Romo is going to crash some time soon. He has to.
I’m going with the Packers at +130 on the moneyline.
