AFC South Showdown - Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, November 8th – 1PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN

NFL Point Spread: Colts -9, O/U: 47.5

At the beginning of the season, most observers felt that the AFC South race would feature the same two teams who topped the division standings last season, the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts. With the downfall of the defending division champs from Tennessee, the Colts have lacked a worthy adversary through the first seven games of 2009.

On Sunday, however, they’ll get one: the Houston Texans. With two bottom-rung teams residing in the AFC South, the only club that can catch the Colts is Houston, a 31-10 winner last weekend in Buffalo. If the Texans can spring an upset in Hoosier country, the Colts will have to come back to Texas later in the season…potentially with the division hanging in the balance.

NFL Handicapping: What The Texans Have To Do To Win

Do what the San Francisco 49ers defense did to the Colts on Nov. 1: Stand tall in the red zone, deny home-run pass plays, and force Peyton Manning to convert lots of third downs. The 49ers nearly upset the Colts this past weekend in Indianapolis. Manning racked up a lot of passing yards (347), but was stoned in the red zone (or close to it) each and every time the Colts got into scoring territory. San Francisco threw the Colts’ precision offense out of rhythm, and made the former NFL MVP keep his passes short.

It’s particularly instructive to note that Indianapolis’only touchdown against San Francisco came on a halfback option pass, of all things, from left-throwing running back Joseph Addai. If Houston and defensive end Mario Williams can also limit Indy to four field goals and one touchdown, Texans coach Gary Kubiak will love his chances in this game. It’s easier said than done, but it remains the best way to defend the Colts: Force them to be patient, take away their ground game, and constantly punch them in the mouth.

NFL Handicapping: What The Colts Have To Do To Win

Be patient. Yes, Houston will want to make Indy become a more patient team by shutting off deep balls, so if that’s how the Texans intend to go about their business, coach Jim Caldwell’s guys need to be able to go along for the ride. Let’s put one aspect of this contest into perspective: While Tennessee and Jacksonville have made the playoffs from the AFC South in recent seasons, the Texans have not been part of the postseason picture.

Houston is still a newbie when it comes to pressure-cooker situations. Indianapolis shouldn’t be overconfident, but neither should the Colts feel that they have to empty the playbook or make lots of adjustments against the Texans. Since Houston is the unproven team, Indy ought to have an uncomplicated game plan, and should attempt to beat the Texans with sound fundamentals and basic concepts.

Only if Houston plays like an elite team should the Colts feel the need to become extra creative; Indianapolis will make a stronger statement in this game if it can win without needing to do too much. Then the Texans will be at a loss (literally and figuratively) when the two teams meet later in the season.