posted January 17, 2009 at 15:00 EST in NFL Betting Trends
Steelers Squeak by Ravens - AFC Championship game simulation
by Mike Rose
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 6:30 ET CBS
Weather: Highs in the upper 20s with a 60% chance of snow.
NFL betting fans will be treated to the third edition of the Baltimore/Pittsburgh rivalry this afternoon when the Ravens (13-5, 14-04 ATS) invade Heinz Field for the second time this season to take on the Steelers (13-4, 10-7 ATS) in a gargantuan sports betting affair; kick-off is scheduled for 6:30 ET and the game will be broadcasted nationally on CBS. Baltimore has gone a $$$-making 8-2 ATS away from M&T Bank Stadium this season, while Pittsburgh counters with a 5-4 ATS home mark.
It’s no secret that these teams don’t like one another, and the rivalry has evolved into one of the best the league has to offer. Since 2004, each team has managed five SU victories, but the Ravens hold a 7-3 ATS advantage. The Steelers won both meetings between these AFC North rivals this year, taking the game in Pittsburgh 23-20 in overtime, and winning the tussle in Baltimore 13-9. Also, don’t immediately bank on an ‘under’ game being played! In Pittsburgh’s last nine playoff games, ‘over’ bettors cashed their tickets eight times. Before the 13-9 meeting in Baltimore back in Week 15, the previous four meetings between these two teams surpassed the ‘total’ with the average point total in those four games averaging 43.5 points per game.
1st Quarter:
Neither team managed to do anything against the opposing defense on its first four combined possessions, but the Steelers caught the first break of the game when the defense intercepted QB Joe Flacco and returned it all the way back to the Ravens eight-yard line.
RB Willie Parker picked up a seven-yard gain on 1st and goal, but was then dropped for a three-yard loss by Ray Lewis and company to set up 3rd and goal from the five-yard line. QB Ben Roethlisberger’s 3rd down pass attempt was then dropped by TE Heath Miller, and the Steelers were forced to go for the short range field goal. Jeff Reed’s offering split the uprights, and the Steelers jumped out to the 3-0 lead.
The Ravens offense started their third possession of the game from their own 26-yard line after KR Yamon Figurs returned the kick 28-yards. RB Willis McGahee picked up Baltimore’s initial 1st down of the game, and the offense moved the chains once more before the end of the quarter when WR Derrick Mason hauled in a 10-yard strike to get the offense into Pittsburgh territory for the first time.
BALTIMORE 0 PITTSBURGH 3
2nd QUARTER
The Ravens picked up its third 1st down conversion of the game when Flacco hit TE Heap for an 8-yard gain, and then stormed the Steelers red zone when WR Figurs hauled in a 13-yard reception. After RB LeRon McClain set the Ravens up 1st and goal at Pitt’s seven yard line on a pair of five-yard gains, rookie QB Flacco made his second error of the game trying to force one into TE Heap that was picked off to put an end to the fabulous drive.
The Ravens defense did a tremendous job in keeping the Steelers backed up to their own end zone on the next three plays, which in turn set the offense up with decent field position for their next drive.
QB Flacco has drawn accolades to the point of nauseum about not turning the ball over of late, but it seems to have caught up to him in this game. After killing the Ravens last drive with a poor pass, he threw a TD pass on the Ravens very next play. However, the pass was thrown to a player sporting the black and gold, and it was returned 51-yards by CB Ike Taylor to increase the home teams lead to 10.
Seemingly down and out, captain and Baltimore MVP LB Ray Lewis was found pumping the offense up for their next possession of the game. The Ravens managed just one first down, but was forced to punt after that.
The Steelers started out at their own 17-yard line after PR Santonio Holmes called for the fair catch. RB Willie Parker had been kept quiet until the very next play that saw him get past the 1st and 2nd level of defenders en route to the endzone. The 83-yard gallop was the longest of his career, and it helped the Steelers blow this game wide open!!!
The Ravens got passed midfield on their next possession as well, but the drive was halted when Flacco’s 4th and short pass fell incomplete. With just 17 ticks left in the half, the Steelers elected to take a knee and head to the locker room in full control of the game.
BALTIMORE 0 PITTSBURGH 17
3rd Quarter
The Ravens got off to a quick start in the second half when the defense forced its first turnover of the day by picking off QB Roethlisberger on their second play from scrimmage. However, Flacco and the offense couldn’t do anything with the fabulous field position forcing HC John Harbaugh to look to K Matt Stover to get them on the board. Stover’s 27-yard attempt rang true, and the Ravens finally got on the board.
The Ravens defense forced a three and out on the Steelers next possession to swing “Ol Mo” in their favor as the offense took the field looking to crawl even closer on the scoreboard.
QB Flacco had enough of it, and it showed throughout the next drive as his balls were flying right into the hands of his WR corps. He nailed WR Mark Clayton for a 13-yard gain on 1st down, and then hit RB McGahee for a perfectly executed screen pass that moved the chains again. After RB McClain rumbled for eight yards on 1st down, the Ravens found the endzone for the first time when WR Derrick Mason outleaped a pair of Steelers defenders and fell into the endzone to cut Pitt’s lead to seven.
After Ray Lewis and company forced their second straight three and out, the offense set up shop at their own 40 looking to tie the game up. RB McGahee got them down to the Steelers 38-yard line on a couple of rushes and a dump-off pass that went for 13-yards. After QB Flacco hit TE Heap for nine yards, RB McGahee broke another long run like he has in every game over the last month. This one also ended with a scamper into the endzone, and the Ravens crawled all the way back from a 17 point hole to knot this one up. Hopefully they didn’t run out of gas along the way…. What a comeback by the visitors!!!
Willie Parker went back to work on the Steelers next drive to assure HC Tomlin of not having to run his defense back out there after another three and out. After their initial 1st down, “Big Ben” connected with WR Santonio Holmes for 10 yards, and followed it up with a 13-yard strike to WR Heinz Ward to get the offense down to the Ravens 24 as the quarter came to a close.
BALTIMORE 17 PITTSBURGH 17
4TH QUARTER
After RB Parker picked up five yards on 1st down, he was dropped for a four yard loss on the next play, and TE Miller dropped Roethlisberger’s 3rd down offering. K Jeff Reed came on and nailed the 39-yarder to allow Pitt to reclaim the lead.
Both defenses held strong for the next 10 minutes of the game. It was clean on both sides of the ball with no turnovers, and surprisingly, no penalties.
Baltimore took possession of the ball with 2:33 left in the game, and needed to march 65+ yards jut to get within reasonable field goal range for Matt Stover. The drive started off well when Flacco hit WR Mason for a 15-yard gain, and then RB McClain busted up the Steelers gut for a seven-yard gain to bring the game to the two minute warning. Flacco hit TE Heap for an 8-yard gain out of the break, and RB McGahee picked up the 1st down on the next play after getting tackled at the Steelers 45-yard line. Flacco’s next two passes fell incomplete, but he managed to hit WR Clayton in stride over the middle to set up a short 4th and 1 from Pitt’s 36-yard line. Big man McClain easily picked up the 1st down to give the Ravens a fresh set of downs. With just a minute left and the Ravens five yards out of Stover’s automatic range, Baltimore looked destined to at the very least tie the game up. That said; Flacco made a huge rookie mistake on their next play from scrimmage when he got dropped for an 8-yard loss instead of throwing the ball away. Baltimore scrambled to the line to get off its next play, but one of the lineman wasn’t set and they were called for illegal procedure. Baltimore took a timeout to regroup.
After the timeout, Flacco connected with Derrick Mason for 10-yards, which set up a 3rd and 13. Flacco scrambled for six yards on the next play setting the stage for the all important FG attempt. Stover was true on his initial attempt from 49-yards out, but Pitt HC Tomlin called a timeout just before the ball was snapped. Pitt got excellent penetration on the next play and actually got just enough of the pigskin to deflect it to force it to fall short of the uprights. Pitt took over on downs, took a knee, and punched their ticket to the Super Bowl for the second time in four years.
FINAL SCORE: BALTIMORE 17 PITTSBURGH 20
This game simulation calls for a Baltimore cover and for the combined score to go over the ‘total’. You can get Baltimore (+6) -110 and the Over 34 –110 at BetUS.com right now!!!
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | FINAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALTIMORE | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| PITTSBURGH | 3 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 20 |
QB Joe Flacco: 16/31 175 yards 1 TD 3 INT
QB Ben Roethlisberger: 19/33 199 yards 0 TD 1 INT
RB Willis McGahee: 23 carries for 86 yards 1 TD Long of 23
RB Willie Parker: 26 carries for 125 yards 1 TD Long of 83
WR Derrick Mason: 8 receptions for 86 yards 1 TD Long of 27
WR Heinz Ward: 7 receptions for 65 yards 0 TD Long of 18
| BAL | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| TOTAL OFFENSE | 306 | 346 |
| RUSHING YARDS | 131 | 147 |
| PASSING YARDS | 175 | 199 |
| 1ST DOWNS | 15 | 21 |
| TOTAL YARDS | 402 | 453 |
| TURNOVERS | 3 | 1 |
| 3RD DOWN CONV | 7/19 37% | 6/21 28% |
| PENALTIES | 7-65 | 9-77 |
| TIME OF POSSESSION | 26:45 | 33:15 |
