posted August 29, 2008 at 14:30 in NFL Betting Trends
San Diego Chargers Meet San Francisco 49ers
by BetUS Staff
The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 2-1 SU & ATS in pre-season), who got off to an awful beginning but have come back to dominate the opposition, will wrap things up in the pre-season when they play host to the San Diego Chargers (11-5 SU & ATS in 2007 regular season; 2-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) in NFL action that is set to kick off at 10 PM ET on Friday at Monster Park (natural turf) in San Francisco.
BetUS NFL betting odds: SAN FRANCISCO -2, Total 36
NOTABLE STAT: Niners were last in scoring in 2007 (13.7 ppg)
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in last six in pre-season
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Niners are listed as a two-point favorite, with the total posted at 36 points.
Here are some NFL betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SD has won eight of its last nine games SU
* SD has covered its last nine games
* SD has won four of its last five road games SU
* SD has covered its last four road games
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost five of its last seven home games SU
Pre-Season trends:
* SD has won five of its last six pre-season games SU
* SD has played six of its last nine pre-season games OVER the total
* SF is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six pre-season games
* SF has played four of its last six pre-season games OVER the total
San Francisco was kind of non-offensive in their pre-season opener against the Raiders, managing just 269 total yards in an 18-6 defeat. That was understandable, since the Niners are in the process of adjusting to a new offense being brought in by coordinator Mike Martz, which requires much precision due to its complexity. But the San Francisco attack not only rebounded from that embarrassment, they ran up the score against Green Bay the next week, winning a 34-6 runaway. And against the Bears at Soldier Field last Thursday, they gained 425 yards of offense and only a late Hail Mary TD pass brought Chicago to win 37-30.
This efficiency has generally coincided with J.T. O'Sullivan getting the bulk of the important playing time at quarterback. Martz brought O'Sullivan over because the two were together at Detroit last year, and thus O'Sullivan was familiar with the scheme. Maybe very few people saw this coming, but O'Sullivan has been anointed the Niners' opening-day starter, leaving Alex Smith, the former #1 pick in the NFL Draft, in the lurch. And he earned it, completing seven of eight passes for 154 yards in the third pre-season game, the one that carries with it the most importance.
San Diego has discovered in the pre-season that it can replace Michael Turner, the backup running back who went off to be a starter in Atlanta. Jacob Hester, the rookie out of LSU, has been one of the most impressive players in camp, And Darren Sproles, whose duties were primarily as a kick returner, could be an explosive third-down back.
Most of the news in San Diego has involved the case of Shawne Merriman, who has two ligament tears in his left knee and was advised to have surgery by doctors, but elected to play instead. Of course, he's not playing on Friday, which is our main concern for purposes of this conversation. But many teammates think he may be playing with fire.
If I had to go one side or the other here, it would probably be with San Francisco, because I think Mike Nolan and Martz would like to at least maintain a little continuity and momentum for their offense as they get ready for the regular season opener. They may not be showing people a lot from the playbook, but at least you have two quarterbacks - Smith and Shawn Hill - who want to impress, just in case O'Sullivan stumbles along the way.
We'll lay a couple of points with the Niners in the BetUS NFL pre-season betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO -2 *
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)