posted December 31, 2008 at 12:20 in NFL Betting Trends
NFL Playoff Simulation Ravens vs Dolphins
by Mike Rose

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins 1:00 ET CBS
Weather: Isolated showers with lows in the lower 60s and highs in the upper 70s.
The Baltimore Ravens (11-5, 12-3-1 ATS) will look to keep its Super Bowl dreams intact as it visits sunny Miami for the second time this season to do battle with fiery head coach Tony Sparano’s Dolphins (11-5, 8-8 ATS); kick-off is slated for 1:00 ET and the sports betting affair can be seen nationally on CBS. The Ravens were one of the best money-makers on the road this season after cashing ATS in 6 of their 8 games, while Miami struggled to cover the pointspread at home going a very poor 2-6 ATS.
With Pittsburgh clinching the AFC North division at Baltimore in Week 15, all the Ravens had to do last week was beat the Jacksonville Jaguars to go to the playoffs. They not only beat the Jags, but also covered the lofty 10-point spread to improve its mark to a phenomenal 6-1-1 ATS at home. This Ravens squad has been going at it for 15 consecutive weeks after they were forced to take their “Bye” in Week 2 after the game in Houston was postponed during the hurricane season. That hasn’t stopped Ray Lewis and company from destroying its opponents on a weekly basis. Though a large number of notable players are on IR, the Ravens made no excuses and went about their business every Sunday.
Miami is the story of the AFC for 2008. They went from being a 1-15 team a year ago to going 11-5 in ’08 and winning the AFC East. Bill Parcells made a huge impact in the front office, Tony Sparano turned out to be a heck of a hire as head coach, and Chad Pennington fell into their laps after he was exiled form NY after Favre came over from the Packers. Those three things helped the Dolphins franchise parlay what looked to be the doormat of the AFC East into a breath of fresh air that will allow the sunny shores of Miami to take in some post-season pigskin.
Like Indy & San Diego, these two teams hooked up during the regular season back in Week 7. Baltimore proved triumphant that day and escaped South Beach with a dominating 27-13 outright win as three-point underdogs. In fact, the underdog has cashed in each of these teams last four meetings. Miami is 6-1 ATS the L/7 times it was installed the decided underdog, but they’re a very poor 1-7-1 ATS the L/9 times they were installed a home underdog up to three points. Baltimore found itself in the road favorite position once this year, and passed the test with flying colors by pummeling Cincinnati 34-3 as seven-point choices. That said; that lone win was their first in eight tries in that role (1-8 ATS L/9).
FINAL SCORE: MIAMI 17 BALTIMORE 10
This game simulation calls for a Miami outright victory and for the game to go under the posted ‘Total’. You can get Miami (+3) +105 and the under 37.5 –110 at BetUS.com right now!!!
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | FINAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALTIMORE | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| MIAMI | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
QB Joe Flacco: 18/37 197 yards 0 TD 2 INT
QB Chad Pennington: 16/32 132 yards 1 TD 0 INT
RB Willis McGahee: 27 carries for 63 yards 1 TD Long of 13
RB Ricky Williams: 15 carries for 76 yards 1 TD Long of 8
WR Derrick Mason: 10 receptions for 90 yards 0 TD Long of 23
WR Davone Bess: 5 receptions for 51 yards 1 TD Long of 20
| BAL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| TOTAL OFFENSE | 335 | 301 |
| RUSHING YARDS | 138 | 169 |
| PASSING YARDS | 197 | 132 |
| 1ST DOWNS | 20 | 17 |
| TOTAL YARDS | 377 | 406 |
| TURNOVERS | 3 | 1 |
| 3RD DOWN CONV | 7/26 26% | 7/12 26% |
| PENALTIES | 5-50 | 2-30 |
| TIME OF POSSESSION | 28:08 | 31:52 |
The Ravens defense held its ground to make up for the offenses mistakes through three quarters, but Miami saw it all the way through with 10 unanswered points in the final stanza to pull off the outright upset. Rookie Joe Flacco threw for some decent yardage, but made a couple mental mistakes that squandered a couple Ravens’ scoring chances. QB Chad Pennington’s experience was all the Dolphins young offense needed to remain focused to pull off the comeback when it mattered most. It also helped that RBs Williams and Brown got the best of the Ravens “D” on the ground. This was a hard hitting game from the opening kick, and a game fans of both clubs won’t soon forget….