posted January 18, 2008 at 18:10 EST in NFL Betting Trends

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, February 3rd – University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale --- 4:30pm EST

Opening NFL Betting Futures: New England -13.5

Out of nowhere, the Giants got surly behind some unusually accurate passing from Eli Manning, nearly dethroning the Patriots by barely losing in a 38-35 decision agasint the Patriots. Despite this, the oddsmakers still don’t like their chances if they were to face the Patriots in the Superbowl once again.

The concept that the Patriots are vulnerable against the run has been the dead horse betting analysts have been harping on. And the sticks don’t come bigger, thicker or more viscious in these playoffs than in the form of running-back Brandon Jacobs. The former fourth-round pick towers at 6-foot-4 and tips the scales at 264 pounds. Yes, he’s bigger than most linebackers in the league, which is a large reason that he averages 5.0 yards per carry. He may have only totaled 67 yards against New England in Week 17, but he averaged 4.5 yards per carry on 15 attempts.

What’s scary for the Giants is that their secondary has come to life, starting with the emergence of Corey Webster, the former LSU Tiger. Tampa Bay tried to pick on the youngster in their Wildcard matchup and Webster retaliated by shutting down Joey Galloway and notching a pick against a usually mistake-free Jeff Garcia. After eliminating both Galloway and Terrell Owens in the last two weekends, Webster’s confidence is soaring through the roof, and it is properly infecting the rest of the Giants secondary.

But stopping Tom Brady in the Superbowl is no easy task. Covering Moss is just as impossible. But the Giants are playing with passion on defense, and that has been the only proven ingredient for slowing down the Patriots. What’s worse for those that wish to bet on the Patriots in this one is that the Giants know they belong on the same turf as the Patriots, and that confidence might be enough to at least make this one close. The Patriots are still the heavy -375 favorite to win the Superbowl, but winning by two touchdowns would prove to be too difficult against these Giants.

NFL Future Free Pick: NYG 24 New England 34

New York Giants vs. San Diego Chargers

Sunday, February 3rd – University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale --- 4:30pm EST

Opening NFL Betting Futures: San Diego -4

If you had told me that this matchup could’ve been a vague possibility when Championship weekend reared its gorgeous head, I would’ve laughed at you and hosed you right out of my living room. But it’s true – the Giants could very well face the dangerous Chargers in this matchup. Vegas has pinned this as a tight game, and you can bet that that would be the case should these two lock horns in Superbowl XLII. How unbelievable would it be for the Chargers to knock off two Mannings en route to a Superbowl?

The Giants average 23.3 points per game and Eli Manning is targeting the exact area of the field where San Diego’s defense is vulnerable. His short, underneath dishes to Kevin Boss, Amani Toomer and Brandon Jacobs have marched the Giants from end to end. The Chargers love to blitz and send their linebackers in to the backfield, leaving them vulnerable underneath. The Chargers give up 213.3 passing yards per game, and leave their secondary on an island. Not that Antonio Cromartie and Quinten Jammer can’t hold their own, but the middle of the field will be open for Eli all day long knowing San Diego.

The Chargers will try to counteract by stretching the field with Vincent Jackson and Chris “Torture” Chambers to open up the lanes for LaDanian Tomlinson. Tomlinson helped the Chargers average 127.4 rushing yards per game and will be accompanied by Sproles and Turner to keep him fresh and lethal. The Giants are known for their over pursuit, and they are still nursing some important injuries at linebacker.

Where I see the Chargers losing this matchup is at quarterback. Rivers has grown cocky, but has yet to show the game-changing instincts that takeover a contest from his position. It would be an interesting dual between Manning and Rivers, both of which were traded for each other during the 2004 NFL Draft. But Eli has the pedigree, tools and confidence to win this battle. Ultimately, that should catch your attention if you wish to take advantage of our betting futures. But, in all likelihood, this matchup has the smallest probability of happening.

NFL Future Free Pick: NYG 24 San Diego 21

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