posted November 29, 2007 at 18:00 EST in NFL Betting Trends
Football Betting - Titans Hope for Haynesworth
by BetUS Staff
Even NFL betting veterans can sometimes undervalue the impact of the “non-skill” positions on the gridiron. But it’s hard not to pay attention to someone 6-foot-6 and 320 pounds.
Albert Haynesworth is a game-changer at defensive tackle. The Tennessee Titans were 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread in the first half of the season. Then Haynesworth was forced to the sidelines with a bad hamstring; since then, the Titans are 0-3 SU and ATS, allowing 157.3 yards rushing per game.
Sharp handicappers are keenly interested in Haynesworth’s status for this Sunday’s matchup at LP Field against the Houston Texans. He participated in most of Wednesday’s practice and was officially listed as “questionable” at press time. Defensive end Travis LaBoy (concussion) was more restricted in practice, but the Titans hope they will have both players back on the field this week.
That hope may already have been factored into the NFL odds: Tennessee –4, with a total of 43. On October 21, the Titans (+2) won 38-36 in Houston with Haynesworth in the lineup. The Texans were held to a miniscule 39 yards rushing on 11 carries by RB Ahman Green. Since then, Ron Dayne has become the main ball-carrier while Green nurses a knee injury. Earlier reports suggested both would be ready for Sunday; however, Green was anything but a given at press time.
Dayne is getting plenty of positive press for his recent performance as the Texans have won two of three. Green has actually been the more useful runner this year, at 4.7 DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) in rushing situations versus minus-0.2 for Dayne. But a combination of both will be necessary if Haynesworth is active Sunday. It’s Dayne’s old “Thunder and Lightning” days in New York all over again, with Green playing the role of Tiki Barber. His proficiency catching the ball complements Dayne’s power running, making Tennessee’s job more difficult should both men play.
Otherwise, Houston has struggled with quality opposition at 5-6 SU and ATS; all five wins came against teams who are currently below .500. Sunday shouldn’t be any different; we can rightly expect the game to bear resemblance to October’s matchup unless Dayne and Green are both in, or Haynesworth is out.
Kick-off is at LP Field at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time. CBS provides the television coverage.
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