Oddsmakers Peg Patriots as Favorites in Super Bowl XLIV

The oddsmakers in Vegas and at BetUS have the New England Patriots emerging as front-runners for the Super Bowl. Of course, this is all contingent on how good you think Tom Brady is going to be. After getting his knee obliterated in Week 1 of the 2008 season, Brady is back and is reportedly 100% ready to go.

“He looks great in practice!”

That’s what you hear from the scouting reports. You know who else probably looks great in practice? Chris Simms, JaMarcus Russell and my freaking mother (she has a canon for an arm). The fact remains that Brady’s injury happened on his pivot knee, meaning the knee that will be twisting during the 500+ attempts he manages in the 2009 season…if he makes it that far.

I’m not questioning his talent at all, nor the coaching genius of Bill Belichik. Not even close. What I am questioning is his resiliency to a time-tested injury that has plagued athletes for centuries. The closest comparison we could possible have is Carson Palmer of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Palmer, who had a breakout year in 2005 had his knee dismantled in the playoffs by Kimo von Oelhoffen of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since then, Palmer’s production has dropped lower and lower. He went from a 101.1 rating in 2005 followed by ratings of 93.9, 86.7 and 69.0. The last season was a rating from four games in 2008 since Carson also had a recurring elbow problem.

And while the numbers don’t necessarily lie, they don’t tell the whole truth. Carson Palmer is not the same player he was in 2005. Not even close. He was a brash, superhuman gun slinger, fearlessly towering in the pocket and burning the skies with laser passing. Now, he’s just not the same. Granted, some of that has to be contributed to the abysmal state of affairs in Cincinnati, but Palmer has lost something in his pass, and is certainly not the same field presence he was in 2005.

Tom Brady’s NFL Betting Odds

Win AFC: +350 (Conference favorite)

Win AFC East: -400 (Division favorite)

Win MVP: +400 (NFL favorite)

Win Super Bowl XLIV: +900 (NFL favorite)

What makes Brady different? He’s not even close to the athletic phenom that Carson Palmer is. Before his injury last year, he averaged 519 attempts a year. In perhaps the greatest year of any NFL quarterback, Brady shattered the touchdown record with 50 passing scores, 4,806 yards and a rating of 117.2. Randy Moss and Wes Welker will still be in Patriots’ uniforms next year, so the only thing that is going to change is Brady’s knee.

How will it effect his mental well-being? He hasn’t stood in the pocket with an actual opposing defense ready to bear down on him yet. Do you realize how many times the Patriots’ betting backers are going to vomit in their own mouths every time Brady is sacked? Is this a bad time to mention that the Patriots play the Bills, Jets, Falcons and Ravens in the first four weeks of the season? They also get the Titans in Week 6 and the Bucs in Week 7.

I don’t know about you guys, but I’m not banking on a reconstructed knee to win the Superbowl. Not when Pittsburgh is coming off a galvanizing year, and with so many question marks about Brady’s physical and mental strength in what will be his greatest test to date. If you’re willing to stomach the gut wrenching ride of Tom Brady 2.0, then be my guest. Just don’t come crying to me when your NFL betting bank, and Tom Brady, are left in the trenches without a leg to stand on.