posted October 31, 2009 at 22:00 EST in NFL Articles
Now With Smith Under Center Can the 49’ers Upset the Colts?
NFL: Now With Smith Under Center Can the 49’ers Upset the Colts?
Game-day: 11/1/2009
Kick-off: 1:00 pm EST
The San Francisco 49’ers made the move that a lot of other teams, in particular the cross bay Oakland Raiders, are hesitant to make. The Niners benched their starter QB Shaun Hill in favor of former #1 draft pick Alex Smith.
Almost every NFL fan in the nation who had watched the happenings on the eclectic side of the Golden Gate Bridge expected the move. Hill had struggled through a 3 and 2 record as a starter before playing a terrible first half against the Houston Texans this past Sunday. After going 6 for 11 for only 45 yards, Hill was benched before the start of the second half.
49’ers coach Mike Singletary made the switch to Smith because he had to. Hill’s style it to lead the team on long, drawn out drives, with short passes, runs up the middle and sweeps. Because San Francisco was down 21 to 0 at halftime, Singletary couldn’t afford to play Hill’s style. He had to get some points on the board.
In came Alex Smith who threw three touchdown passes to tight-end Vernon Davis and 206 yards. He also had only 6 incompletions out of 22 pass attempts. Smith’s efforts weren’t good enough to get the 49’ers the victory, but they did cut the lead to 3 points, 24 to 21.
So, when the word came down a day or so ago that Smith would start in place of Hill for the San Francisco 49’ers game against the Indianapolis Colts, nobody should have been surprised, but will the switch give the Niners a chance to upset the undefeated Colts? Or, will the switch not even matter?
Below are the NFL betting odds in the NFL sportsbook for this game.
San Francisco 49’ers +12 -110 +500 O 44 -110
Indianapolis Colts -12 -110 -700 U 44 -110
Here are a few online betting trends for this game.
- The San Francisco 49’ers are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games on the road.
- The San Francisco 49’ers are 2 and 5 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.
- The Indianapolis Colts are 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Now, let’s take a look at how the offenses and defenses matchup.
49’ers’ Offense vs. Colts’ Defense
Up until the switch to Alex Smith, the 49’ers offense had been downright awful. Ranked 29th in the league, averaging only 272 total yards, and hitting only 77.8% of their field goal attempts, San Francisco’s offense just wasn’t going anywhere. The strength of your quarterback directly affects every part of your game which is one of the reasons the Niners weren’t just failing on offense but failing on defense and special teams as well.
The quarterback elicits confidence and confidence turns into good plays. With Smith under center, the 49’ers have a much more talented, stable arm. His timing with tight-end Vernon Davis should already scare teams. It’s only a matter of time before he develops the same type of connection with wide receiver Michael Crabtree. Smith has another thing going for him. Running back Frank Gore is now healthy enough to support the passing game. Gore, when healthy, can be one of the most explosive backs in the game.
Indianapolis’s defense has been much better this season than last season. The Colts’ D is ranked 9th in the NFL. They allow less than 180 passing yards per game and less than 13 points, but they are susceptible to the run. The Colts give up roughly 111 yards on the ground per game. That puts them at 19th in that category. Overall, football betting fans should look at the teams that the Colts’ D have dominated, Seattle, Tennessee, St. Louis and Jacksonville, and realize that even though the defense isn’t bad, it’s probably not as good as the number 9 ranking suggests.
If Gore can get going, then things could open up for Smith and Davis down the middle of the field. The 49’ers could definitely put up points against this defense.
49’ers Defense vs. Colts’ Offense
The San Francisco 49’ers defense plays with the same type of intensity that their head coach, Mike Singletary, used to play with. The problem is that unlike Singletary, when he was with the Chicago Bears, that intensity hasn’t translated to fantastic play. Patrick Willis, who plays the “Mike” position on the Niners’ defense, is ranked 50th in the league in sacks.
The 49’ers have picked the ball off only 6 times as opposed to the league leader, the New Orleans Saints, who have picked the ball off 13 times already in 2009. San Francisco has caused only 10 turnovers in 2008. That’s 8 off of the league leaders, the Saints and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Not causing turnovers, failure to intercept passes and not getting to the quarterback, are all things that play right into the hands of Indianapolis signal caller, Peyton Manning. The future hall of famer has been amazing in 2009. He’s thrown for 15 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. He’s completing 72.6% of his passes. He’s thrown for 1880 yards for a 114 QB rating.
His number one target, Reggie Wayne, has excelled even though teams double-team him because there is no real threat opposite him on the field. Wayne already has 5 touchdowns, over 500 yards receiving and is averaging close to 7 catches per game. The running game is solid with Joseph Addai carrying the load and Donald Brown spelling him as needed.
The 49’ers D gives up on average 236 passing yards per game. That’s a big problem for this team as the Colts are pass happy with Manning under center and Wayne on the edge. The Colts offense could absolutely dominate San Francisco’s defense in this game.
The Best NFL Bet Is…
San Francisco +500 on the NFL moneyline. Taking a stand? Yes, but not without a reason. The Colts have been coasting through this season playing against teams that hadn’t really found themselves yet, like Miami and Arizona, or flat out bad teams like Seattle, St. Louis and Tennessee.
Playing such awful teams could have made the Colts cocky. Cocky never works in the NFL. Indianapolis would have to have a bad day in order for the San Francisco 49’ers to win this game.
I’ll be betting that they will and hopefully cashing to the tune of +500.
