posted October 5, 2009 at 13:23 EST in NFL Articles
Monday Night Football - Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
by Ian James
The picture in the NFC is a getting clearer after an eventful day on the NFL betting board on Sunday. Both the Saints and 49ers remained undefeated against the spread with paydays against the Jets and Rams, respectively, while the Giants improved to 3-0-1 ATS with their 27-16 win over the Chiefs as 9-point road favorites.
The Vikings are a step ahead of the Packers heading into their showdown on Monday night, but both teams also have to worry about the Bears in the NFC North. Chicago (-9.5) ripped Detroit 48-24 on Sunday to lift itself to 3-1 (3-1 ATS).
A win by Minnesota would allow it to remain in first place, with a Green Bay upset on the scoreboard resulting in a three-way tie atop the division.
By the way, you might have heard something in the mainstream press about this being Brett Favre’s first game against his former team. Just maybe.
Green Bay at Minnesota (-4, 46) – 8:30 PM ET
For all the nauseating talk surrounding Favre’s first matchup against Green Bay, getting a handle on the quarterbacks should be the least of handicappers’ concerns for the Monday nighter between the Vikings (3-0, 2-1 ATS) and Packers (2-1, 2-1 ATS).
How Favre and Aaron Rodgers play matters, of course, but the more important battle is happening in the trenches. Namely, how is Green Bay going to slow down Minnesota’s defensive line? How are the Packers going to slow down Adrian Peterson, the league’s leading rusher?
The Packers have allowed 12 sacks this season, and that doesn’t bode well heading into what will be a raucous Metrodome on Monday night. On the personnel front, left tackle Chad Clifton is expected to miss his second straight game with a sprained left ankle for Green Bay.
If he can’t go, the Packers will be forced to start Daryn Colledge opposite Vikes’ sack machine Jared Allen. Green Bay’s offensive line has proven to be mediocre at the best of times this season, so it could be in serious trouble against Minnesota.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers have allowed three consecutive 100-yard rushers, putting pressure on their defense to step up against Peterson. The dynamic running back led the NFL with 357 yards on the ground before Sunday’s games, and was second with four touchdowns. Peterson lit up Green Bay’s defense in Minny’s 28-27 win at the Metrodome when the rivals met last season, rambling for 192 yards in the Packers’ payday as 2.5-point underdogs.
The good news for Green Bay is All-Pro guard Steve Hutchinson (back) is questionable for Minnesota. If he can’t play, that’s a serious blow to the Vikings’ offense, and could put more pressure on Favre to make plays.
The Packers won the other meeting between the teams last season, 24-19 as 1-point chalk at Lambeau Field. Overall, Green Bay has covered in four straight and in five of the last six contests between the clubs (5-1 SU), although Favre was under center for the Packers in four of those five wins.
Favre has five touchdown passes (one interception) this season, and none was more dramatic than his 32-yard TD toss to Greg Lewis with 0:02 left to lift Minnesota past San Francisco (+7) 27-24 last week. For his part, Rodgers has thrown four touchdowns without a pick, but has completed only 56.7% of his passes.
Rodgers went 13-of-23 for 269 yards with two TDs in Green Bay’s 36-17 win as 6.5-point road faves at St. Louis last week, while he also ran for 38 yards on eight attempts. The Packers racked up 152 yards on the ground against the lowly Rams, but they’ll have a harder time against the Vikes. Minnesota is fourth in the NFL in total defense (259.7 yards per game), and has led the NFC in defending the run in each of the last two seasons.
The trends on the matchup certainly favor Green Bay and the over on the 46-point total. The Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against NFC North opponents, while the road team has covered in 11 of the last 14 meetings.
Green Bay is also 20-6-1 O/U in its last 27 contests against NFC teams, and has played over the number in 11 of its last 14 games away from Lambeau Field. Head to head, the clubs are 7-1-1 O/U in the last nine battles at the Metrodome.
