posted July 8, 2009 at 11:53 EST in NFL Articles
Handicapping the NFL's MVP
by Charles Jay
With the NFL season 1.5 months away from kicking off, here is a breakdown of all the regular season MVP candidates and their odds of winning.
For the last last 20+ years the MVP award has gone to either a quarterback or a running back, with Lawrence Taylor winning it in 1986.
Let's start things out with some numbers:
To Win Regular Season MVP
Tom Brady +400
Peyton Manning +700
Adrian Peterson +800
Ben Roethlisberger +1400
Drew Brees +1400
Kurt Warner +1400
Tony Romo +1400
Donovan McNabb +1400
Larry Fitzgerald +1600
LaDainian Tomlinson +1600
Randy Moss +1800
Eli Manning +1800
Philip Rivers +2000
Matt Ryan +2000
Terrell Owens +2000
Michael Turner +2500
Carson Palmer +2500
Steve Smith +2500
Jay Cutler +3000
Marion Barber +3000
Steven Jackson +3000
I'm going to eliminate some people first. Terrell Owens (+2000), despite his notoriety, is not winning any MVP award. Neither is Steven Jackson (+3000), because the Rams are not likely to achieve the level of success that would warrant such a thing. I don't see LaDanian Tomlinson (+1600) as a contender, but rather, a guy who's sliding and may be a little worn from all the carries he's had in his career. In Ben Roethlisberger's (+1400) career, he has come up big twice in the playoffs, but the Steeler quarterback isn't going to have gaudy enough statistics, I gather. He'll wind up throwing more than is share of interceptions, and he'll get sacked a lot, and maybe he could throw for a higher percentage. If Kurt Warner (+1400) didn't win the award again last season, he never will. Marion Barber (+3000) is not going to have enough carries to roll up huge numbers for the Cowboys, especially if Felix Jones comes back healthy and Tashard Choice earns himself a role. The candidacy of Steve Smith (+2500) just doesn't grab me. Carson Palmer's (+2500) team will have to make very big strides to make him a contender coming off an injury, and although it's not impossible, there's a lot of resistance coming from within Cincinnati's own division.
Out of the people who are remaining, I would probably rank them like this:
- Peyton Manning
- Adrian Peterson
- Drew Brees
- Tom Brady
- Larry Fitzgerald
Manning has won the award three times, and he did so last season, even though it wasn't his best statistical year. Peterson is Peterson; he is the premier running back in the NFL, and can win this award even if his team doesn't have a dominant season. Brees is a real possibility because he is going to put up great numbers in that offense of his, and if the Saints elevate themselves to playoff level, he is going to get a lot of credit for it. I'm a little worried about Brady, because there is no way of knowing how he is going to come back after his knee injury, but he had weapons at his disposal, and there will be some sentiment on his side. Fitzgerald muscled his way into the discussion of the best players in the NFL, and after back-to-back 1400-yard seasons, along with seven TD's and 30 catches in last year's post-season, he'll be watched very closely.
Here are a few others at longer odds who have a chance:
PHILIP RIVERS, San Diego (+2000) -- With 34 TD's and just eleven interceptions last season, Rivers gave an indication of things to come. He will likely get less support from the running game, so he will continue to fill the air with footballs. He has a chance to be a quarterback, the very good numbers, on a team that could have the best record in the AFC. That'll give him some built-in credentials.
MICHAEL TURNER, Atlanta (+2500) -- Turner is a great player, overshadowed for years in San Diego but just itching to bust out, as he did last season for the Falcons (1699 yards). Sure, he was used an awful lot, but he is making up for lost time. His head coach loves to run the ball, his offensive line is solid, his quarterback will be better, and he is still by far the biggest option on the ground.
AARON RODGERS (+3000) -- I thought Aaron Rodgers was remarkable in the way he was able to step into the huge shoes left by Brett Favre, passing for over 4000 yards and 28 touchdowns, with just 13 interceptions. He's got great poise, and he will be working with a nice, deep group of receivers. The Packers have a chance to move up when you consider the quality in the division and the fact that they lost seven games by four points or less.
MATT FORTE, Chicago (+4000) -- You really have to love what Forte did for the Bears last season, gaining 1238 yards on the ground and catching 63 passes. I don't really see a drop-off, and he may be more effective if Jay Cutler is able to keep opposing defenses a little more honest. With the Bears still lacking in the way of explosive targets, Forte is going to be the outlet Cutler will trust the most.
RANDY MOSS, New England (+1800) -- Moss is far too dangerous to be left off this list. Now, with Brady returning, he has a chance to burn teams with the deep ball again. Moss had 23 TD catches and 1493 yards overall when Brady was healthy two seasons ago. With short-armed Matt Cassel throwing to him, he had just 1008 yards and 11 TD's.
