posted November 18, 2008 at 17:03 EST in NFL Articles
Betting NFL Online - Week 11 NFL Betting Recap
by Robby Maddux
Week 11 of the NFL sports betting season began on Thursday with an awesome AFC East showdown between the visiting New York Jets (5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS) and New England Patriots (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS), which included 65 combined points and a near huge come from behind victory that was ultimately decided in overtime, where the Jets earned a 34-31 win to sit atop the division.
New York's Jay Feely kicked a 34-yard field goal in overtime to prevent a Matt Cassel's Tom Brady-like comeback. Cassel and the Pats outgained Brett Favre and company 511 yards to 375, which was the fourth-highest total in New England history. Cassel completed 30-of-51 passes for 400 yards, all career highs, and three touchdowns. It was Favre's NFL record 263rd consecutive regular-season start, finishing 26-of-33 for 258 yards and two TDs.
The Jets' victory extended their winning streak to four with their sixth win in seven games to be in sole possession of first place in the AFC East for the first time since Nov. 19, 2001. It was just the second time in 13 games the Jets beat the Pats. It was a game that contained a little something for everyone, setting the tone for a wild and wacky weekend of NFL betting action, which would be solidified on Sunday.
Beginning with the Philadelphia Eagles (5-4-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) and Cincinnati Bengals (1-8-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) game that ended in a 13-13 draw. It was the first NFL game that finished in a tie since Nov. 10, 2002, when Atlanta and
Pittsburgh walked off the field knotted at 34-34. Each team had three chances in the 15-minute overtime period, but only Cincinnati got close enough to attempt a field goal. But the Bengals being the ''Bungles'', they missed it, handing them only their second tie in franchise history.
Philadelphia hadn’t finished with a tie since 1997 in a 10-10 game against Baltimore. The tie made for back-to-back covers for Cincinnati; meanwhile, it was Philadelphia's consecutive money-dropper as they fall to the bottom of the NFC East. And things don't figure to get better for the Eagles, having three games remaining versus conference foes, who they're 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS against.
In terms of wild and wacky, the first tie in six years was just a drop in the bucket compared to what took place in the San Diego Chargers (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) matchup, especially if you invested in the contest. If you supported the bolts at +5, you were cash stricken and was laughing all the way to the bank. If you backed the black and gold at -5, you were seeing red and far from laughter—or the bank.
Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu returned a loose ball 12 yards for a defensive touchdown with no time remaining. After an instant replay review and crew conference, the on-field ruling of touchdown was incorrectly reversed to no touchdown due to an illegal forward pass by San Diego. However, replays clearly showed no illegal forward passes. The score should have ended up 18-10 in a Steelers' cover victory (with a converted extra-point try), instead, finished 11-10 leading to a Chargers' payday. Though San Diego’s regular-season record in Pittsburgh is now 0-13 SU, adding to their struggles at reaching postseason now two games behind AFC West-leading Denver.
Though the score made no difference in the league's official standings, or to those who wagered on the game using the money line, it did make a huge difference to bettor's bankrolls that used the spread via one of the most obvious blown calls ever made. Adding to the wackiness, surprisingly, it was the first game in NFL history (12,838 games) ever to have ended in an 11-10 final score.
Let's regain some NFL online betting recap normalcy by looking at some numbers, followed by more reviews. Week 11 produced a side ATS record of 9 favorites and 7 underdogs with an O/U 5-10-1 mark. Here's a look at current season key SU and ATS stats as we gear up for this week's action, which begins on Thursday with Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, starting at 8:15pm.
Key NFL wagering records SU:
—Favorites 112-47-1
—Underdogs 47-112-1
—Home Teams 95-64-1
—Away Teams 64-95-1
Key NFL betting records ATS:
—Favorites 80-78-2
—Underdogs 78-80-2
—Home Teams 68-90-2
—Away Teams 90-68-2
Games of the Week:
Titans (10-0 SU, 9-1 ATS) at Jaguars (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS)
News Flash: Tennessee remains unbeaten and cashes again. Not only have the Titans yet to lose, they've covered the spread in all but one game this season with a club capable of running the table. In their tenth win, Kerry Collins threw three touchdown passes and their NFL-best (13.1 ppg) stifling defensive again shined, overcoming a 14-3 halftime deficit to extend its regular-season winning streak to a franchise-record 13. The Titans' 24-14 win was also their seventh consecutive regular-season road victory, and they've cashed in all seven. The Jaguars lost for the fourth time in six games, and failed to cover again at home where they're 0-5 ATS this year. And, now six games behind AFC South leader Tennessee their chances of returning to the postseason are virtually gone.
Denver Broncos (6-4 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS)
The Falcons have soared at home and entered its game versus Denver unbeaten at 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the Georgia Dome. But Broncos Jay Cutler threw a 9-yard touchdown pass to Daniel Graham with 5:30 remaining in the game, and Denver's defense held off Matt Ryan’s final drive, as the Broncos rallied for a 24-20 victory, handing the Falcons their first home loss of the season. Denver owns the NFL's eighth-ranked offense that's scoring 24.9 points per game and third-best 388.8 yards a game, helping them post back-to-back covers, prior to a consecutive six-game ATS skid. Ryan finished 20-of-33 for 250 yards and one pick, meanwhile, Cutler was 19-of-27 with 216 yards and one TD.
Texans (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS) at Colts (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)
The two-time league MVP Peyton Manning led Indianapolis on four straight scoring drives in the second half, keeping the Colts very much alive for one of the AFC’s two wild-card spots, with a 33-27 victory over Houston for their third straight win. Manning finished 30-of-46 for 320 yards with two touchdowns. Manning passed Fran Tarkenton for seventh on the NFL’s career completions list in the win. It appears the Colts are back. Joseph Addai ran for 105 yards and one TD, his first 100-yard day since November 2007. Marvin Harrison caught nine passes for 77 yards and another score and Indy produced a season-high 474 yards of total offense. Despite looking like the Indy of old, they are just 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Houston’s Steve Slaton’s ran 14 times for 156 yards, a franchise record for a rookie, and scored on a 71-yard run, the longest in team history. But the Texans still lost their third straight, dropping the cash in two.
Bears (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) at Packers (5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS)
The Packers' 37-3 win over the Bears was far from a nail biter but a big game in the NFC North. Green Bay's win strengthens its postseason chances, now tied atop the division with the Bears and one game ahead of Vikings. They are also tied with two other teams as the third-best club ATS, having now covered in five consecutive games. Packers' Ryan Grant had a big game, rushing for 145 yards and a touchdown. It was the Packers’ first home victory over the Bears since Lovie Smith took over as Chicago’s coach. Kyle Orton started at quarterback for the Bears after sitting out last Sunday’s game with a sprained right ankle, going 13-of-26 for 138 yards. But Orton was over matched by Aaron Rodgers, who completed 23-of 30-passes for 227 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
Cowboys (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) at Redskins (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS)
In his first game back, returning after missing three games with a broken pinkie on his throwing hand, Tony Romo put the Cowboys firmly back into the NFC playoff race with a 14-10 cover win. Romo finished 19-of-27 with 198 yards, and two interceptions. Terence Newman also returned, after missing five games with a sports hernia, and had a very impressive outing. He shut down Santana Moss, holding the Redskins’ best receiver to 29 yards on five catches and had a second-half interception deep in Cowboys territory.
Other notable Week 11 results at a glance:
—Oakland 15 at Miami 17: The Dolphins earned their fourth consecutive victory, going 2-2 ATS during the span, setting up a Week 12 showdown at Miami against AFC East rival New England. Miami and New England trail the division-leading Jets by one game.
—Baltimore 10 at New York Giants 30: The Giants amassed more than 200 yards rushing for the third straight game against Ray Lewis and the NFL’s stingiest rushing defense that had not given up more than 76 yards to any opponent this season. The Giants have cashed in five consecutive games en route to becoming the NFL's second richest team at 8-2 ATS.
—Arizona 26 at Seattle 20: The Cardinals are 7-3 for the first time since 1977 and can clinch its first division title since 1975 when they hosts the Giants on Sunday. Arizona is now 5-1 ATS in their last six contests.
—Cleveland 29 at Buffalo 27: Brady Quinn earned his first win in his second career start, with the help of a career-long 56-yard Phil Dawson winning field goal, handing Buffalo its four straight loss SU and ATS—their longest skid since 2005—and fifth defeat in the last six games with one cover included during the span. The Bills’ chances of ending their eight-year playoff drought are now in serious jeopardy after a 4-0 season start.
Key injuries heading into Week 12:
—Reggie Bush: (Knee) Still a Question Mark for Week 12
—Derrick Ward: Could Start Against Arizona in Week 12
—Report: Buccaneers RB Graham out for season
—Matt Schaub: (Knee) Season in Doubt
—John Carney: Kicking Duties to Be Decided Week-to-Week
—Rams OT Pace out 2-4 weeks
—Willie Parker: Looks Like a Go for Thursday
—Patriots place CB Wheatley on IR
—Giants RB Jacobs to undergo MRI
—Selvin Young: (Groin) Still a Week Away from Return
Note: These are injury headlines. If you bet on NFL, be sure to checkout a more detailed and complete injury report released later in the week.
Week 12's marquee matchup is the Jets at Titans. There's no hype needed for this one. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings, as well, the road team has been the money-makers in four of the last five clashes. And, the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four series meetings. BetUS NFL odds list Tennessee the early 4½-point favorites.
