posted November 16, 2007 at 17:35 in NFL Articles
Bet on Football – Giants at Lions
by Charles Jay
BetUS NFL betting odds: NY Giants -3, Total 48.5
NOTABLE STAT: Giants have 32 QB sacks; Lions have allowed 40 QB sacks
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Detroit is 5-1 ATS last six as home dog
(For more useful stats and trends, visit our special Matchup Tool)
The Detroit Lions (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS), unquestionably one of the big surprises in the NFL this year, will aim for their seventh win of the season on Sunday when they take on the New York Giants (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) in a game at Ford Field in Detroit (artificial turf) slated to begin at 1 PM ET. In the BetUS NFL betting odds, the Giants are listed at -3, with the over/under posted at 48.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* NY has won six of its last seven games SU
* NY has won five of its last seven road games SU
* NY has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total
* DET is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games
* DET has covered five of its last six as a home dog
* DET has played four OVERS in its last six home games
* NY has won six of the last nine meetings SU
* Four of the last five meetings have gone OVER the total
On the surface, this looks like a statistical mismatch. The Detroit Lions have surrendered more sacks than anyone else in the NFL (40), while the Giants have sacked the QB more than anyone (32). Detroit is 29th in the league in rushing, generating just 83 yards a game, and had minus-18 last week against Arizona, which indicates the Giant pass rush can tee off on Jon Kitna (68%, 12 TD's, 8 INT's). Only two teams have given up more passing yards than the Lions, who yield 69% completions. Back injuries have bothered top draft choice Calvin Johnson, who has caught only 21 passes. Detroit has converted only 32% on third down. We could go on and on.
Certainly you can't have many complaints with the Giants. Eli Manning (59%, 14 TD's) spreads the ball around pretty good. Plaxico Burress has caught eight TD passes, and Jeremy Shockey had 12 receptions against Dallas last week. Brandon Jacobs had 95 yards rushing last week and brings balance to the offense. But there is no doubt that Detroit is a much different team at home than it is on the road. The record reflects that. The Lions have won all four of their games at Ford Field (3-0-1 ATS), and have covered five of the last six times they were a home dog. Kitna hits 68% of his passes, and while we concede Detroit will have to get some balance out of sore-footed Kevin Jones (4.1 ypc) or backup T.J. Duckett, Kitna can flood the secondary with receivers (Roy Williams is the leader, with 613 yards) that will tax New York's secondary, which gave up four TD passes to Tony Romo last week.
Detroit takes big risks to attain big rewards on defense. With 26 sacks and 15 interceptions, the Lions can make the big play. Kitna gave the ball away four times in Arizona, with two INT's and two fumbles, but he is 69% with just one interception at home. We're not saying the points at home are an out-and-out gift, but with a team that has progressed as Detroit has, and with their penchant for playing well at home and after disappointing losses, there is solid evidence to grab the points with the Lions, the three-point underdog in the BetUS NFL betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: DETROIT *
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
The 2007 NFL betting season is here in full force! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLII and beyond!
(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)