posted August 18, 2008 at 19:30 EST in NCAA F Props
NCAA Football Betting Futures – Preseason Seven
by BetUS Staff
It’s been easy to focus solely on the NFL betting season with the flurry of activity on the board lately. However, let’s not stray away from the homers’ true obsession – NCAA betting!
On the big board we have some Top Dawgs dominating the rankings, while some feisty Trojans and Gators attempt to climb the ladder. Who should you be siding with? Let’s take a quick peek at the first installment of the NCAAF Furious Seven.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (+750 to win BCS Championship)
The Bulldogs hammered Hawaii last year 41-10 in the Allstate Sugar Bowl and thundered to the top of all the charts heading in to the college football season. Georgia cashed in last season with an 8-4 ATS record, which allowed their defense to shine by allowing just 17.0 points or less per game.
Running-back Knowshon Moreno proved to be a monster with a 5.4 yards per carry average, which brought him to 1,334 yards on the season with 14 touchdowns. He’s a compact house of pain that will make life uber simple for the ever improving Matthew Stafford. The no-brain starter for the Bulldogs had a QB rating of 128.9 last season with 19 touchdowns and 10 picks. His numbers weren’t astounding, but the win-loss column is all this team cares about.
In the meantime, their defense will keep games close while their conservative offense seizes control of games. They were 6-6 on game totals because their defense kept the game tight and low scoring. However, there’s no other team that is presenting such an elite blend of proven dependability and experience.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (+550 to win BCS Championship)
Another simple season, followed by another devastating BCS Championship defeat. They had the top-ranked defense in the league, but it’s becoming apparent that the Buckeyes simply weren’t playing at the level of their SEC counterparts.
However, with nine starters returning including James Laurinaitis and Todd Boeckman, the Buckeyes will be a great play in the regular season. They went 7-5 ATS in the regular season and, like any great defensive team, were an even better play on the road (4-1 ATS on the road).
The interesting take in Ohio State is going to be the quarterback prospect Terrelle Pryor, who is virtually the second coming of Heisman winner Troy Smith. Pryor won’t challenge the solid play of Boeckman this season, but his development is an interesting study for the coming seasons of the perennially punchy Buckeyes.
3. Florida Gators (+650 to win BCS Championship)
Compared to their 2006 championship run, the 2007 season was a bit of a mess. The Gators finished last season with a disgusting loss to Michigan in the Capital One Bowl, where they were 10-point favorites. Now they return with a vengeance, and an ever improving Tim Tebow.
Percy Harvin will begin to make his case as a premier wide receiver in the league, topping his 858 yard, 4 touchdown season. The question remains if the Gators’ young defense can mature in the coming season. With Tebow at the helm, however, it’s hard for their betting faithful not to believe.
4. USC Trojans (+300 to win BCS Championship)
Quarterback Mark Sanchez had a 2007 line of 695 yards on 114 attempts with 7 touchdowns and five picks. His quarterback rating was 123.2, and while experts are ecstatic about his evolution, I’m not sold. The Trojans were a lousy bet last year, going 7-6 ATS and frustrating their betting investors with curious losses to Stanford and Oregon.
The NFL draft also stripped them of ten players, including three defensive starters. Their offense has three starters returning from last year. Sure the Pac-10 may be a bit easier, but their schedule won’t get them in to the BCS if they don’t beat Ohio State on September 13th.
5. Oklahoma Sooners (+700 to win BCS Championship)
Buyer beware! Sam Bradford was electric as a gunslinger in 2007. He challenged for the Heisman with a 176.5 quarterback rating, and launching 36 scores with only 8 interceptions on 3,121 yards. The freshman sensation now enters the dreaded “sophomore slump”. If you’re superstitious, then stay the hell away. But if you believe, and NCAAF odds is all about faith anyways, then the Sooners will be Big 12 Champs again.
However, will that be enough to lobby them in to the BCS? By getting crushed in the Fiesta Bowl by West Virginia, Bob Stoops’ bowl record dropped to 1-4 SU in the past five bowl appearances. If anyone on the planet is ready to get the monkey off his back, it’s Stoops.
The Sooners get a fifth place ranking because they’ll have one of the best offensive lines in the country. With Bradford coming in to his second year behind a Great Wall of Sooners, Oklahoma will be raining in touchdowns yet again. Scoring will be the priority in dominating the South. Let’s just hope their defense doesn’t let them down this season.
6. Missouri Tigers (+1500 to win BCS Championship)
The Missouri Tigers stormed their way through the Big 12 with a 12-2 SU record, and a 7-1 SU record in the conference. Even better was their phenomenal 10-3 ATS record. However, Chase Daniels and company won’t sneak up on the oddsmakers this year.
Everyone expected the bubble to burst on the Tigers last year. It didn’t (aside from two losses to Oklahoma last season), so don’t bet that it will happen again, especially with their current schedule. The only game of concern on the schedule for these guys is the matchup against Texas on October 18th. They are 1-5 SU in their past 6 against the Longhorns.
7. Clemson Tigers (+2200 to win BCS Championship)
If you are a believer in trends, then you’ll believe that the Tigers and Tommy Bowden will continue to generate hype and burst the bubble of their betting investors. But if you believe in a team’s ability to turn it around with 15 returning starters, then it’s time to start believing.
The Tigers are 26 years removed from their last major bowl appearance. If Tommy Bowden was hoping to turn it around, then now is the time. Now is the only time.
