posted August 29, 2008 at 15:45 in NCAA F Free Picks
SMU Mustangs at Rice Owls under Friday Night Lights
by BetUS Staff
The SMU Mustangs, (1-11 SU, 0-8 Conf., 4-8 ATS, 6-6 O/U) and Rice Owls, (3-9 SU, 3-5 Conf., 5-6 ATS, 10-1 O/U) each floundered immensely last season, recording losing records in the BetUS Sportsbook and failing to cover the spread more often than not.
The Conference USA opponents will hook up in this week one matchup looking to get off to a solid start to the 2008-09 season.
The Mustangs, under the direction of first-year head coach June Jones, has 23 starters returning from a year ago and should be much better on offense in Jones’ run-and-shoot offense.
Unfortunately, the Mustangs’ biggest problems are on the defensive side of the ball as SMU allowed a whopping 39.8 points per game last year, better only than Rice’s 42.9 points per game allowed.
SMU also allowed nearly 500 yards per game, including 300 through the air. If the Mustangs get respectable quarterback play, they could surprise and approach .500. If not, then expect a four-win season as Jones rebuilds this program from scratch.
Under head coach David Bailiff (3-9 at Rice, 24-24 overall) the Owls failed miserably in 2007. The good news for Rice is the fact that they averaged over 43 points per game during the last four games of the 2007-08 season, though the club will have to finding a legitimate running back after watching Justin Hill and C.J. Ugokwe split carries last year.
Quarterback Chase Clement is a double threat who led the team with 535 rushing yards while throwing for 3,377 yards and 29 touchdowns.
Defensively, Rice gave up an astronomical 511 yards per game and lost both starting defensive tackles, but fond a gem in defensive end Scott Solomon who recorded 4.5 sacks and 11 tackles for a loss as a freshman.
Here is a look at the key trends for each team entering this matchup.
The Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
The Mustangs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
The Owls are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 conference games.
The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
The Under is 4-1 in Mustangs last 5 road games.
The Over is 23-3 in Owls last 26 games on turf.
The Over is 21-4 in Owls last 25 conference games.
The Home team is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
SMU + 3½ -110
Rice -3½ -110
Over 71½ -110
Under 71½ -110
Analysis: Despite being on the road in this contest, I urge BetUS college football bettors to take the SMU Mustangs to win their first game under head coach June Jones by simply outscoring the Rice Owls.
NCAAF Free Pick: Take SMU and the Under to double your college football wagering fun – and earnings!