Opening Night North Carolina State at South Carolina

The NCAAF betting floodgates have been opened. Thursday is the first day of the college football season; 14 games will be played, most of them involving mid-major teams and lower. But ESPN will be at Williams-Brice Stadium for the matchup between the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the South Carolina Gamecocks.

South Carolina is a 14.5-point favorite at press time (–700 on the moneyline) with a total of 45 points. In 2007, the Gamecocks got off to a fast start at 6-1 (4-2 against the spread) before losing their last five in a row, covering just once during that slump. They didn’t go to a bowl game; neither did N.C. State at 5-7 (5-6 ATS).

Although both teams had their share of futility, South Carolina was the stronger club coming out of the tough SEC with a +31 point differential on the season. N.C. State, representing the relatively weak ACC, was outscored 339-249 for a point differential of –90.

The betting public’s respect for the SEC can be seen in the line movements for this matchup. The Gamecocks opened Aug. 19 as 11.5-point favorites; four days later, they moved to –12.5, then the full 14 points the day before the game. The total, meanwhile, dropped gradually from 48.5 after the NCAAF odds opened.

The final score on Thursday night might not even get close to 45. The Wolfpack offense is not very good, ahead of only Duke last year in rushing yards and going with redshirt freshman QB Russell Wilson to start the 2008 season. At 5-foot-11, Wilson was a marginal prospect coming out of the Collegiate High prep school in Richmond, Virginia. But his star is rising thanks to a combination of scrambling ability, intelligence, and a quick release. Expect ESPN to hype Wilson for this broadcast by comparing him to Doug Flutie.

South Carolina will give Wilson a rough welcome. The Gamecocks defense allowed the fewest passing yards in the SEC last year; it should be even stronger with the return of LB Jasper Brinkley and DT Nathan Pepper from season-ending injuries.

Meanwhile, the South Carolina offense will also struggle somewhat. Like the Pack, the Gamecocks are sketchy in the running department – last in the SEC in 2007 – and will be piloted by a new starting quarterback in junior Tommy Beecher. He’s not particularly talented, but manages the game well and has a decent arm. North Carolina’s larger linemen should test Beecher during his first collegiate start.

Game time is 8:00 p.m. Eastern.