posted October 7, 2008 at 13:17 in NCAA F Free Picks
NCAAF Free Pick Analysis – Struggling Cornhuskers Face No. 7 Red Raiders
The Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U) hit the road this week to take on the high-powered Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) on Saturday when the two teams meet at Jones AT&T Stadium.
After winning their first three games of the 2008 season, albeit over underwhelming opponents, the Cornhuskers have been lit up the last two weeks and looked downright atrocious against the fourth-ranked Missouri Tigers on Saturday, losing 52-17 in a contest they were never in.
While quarterback Joe Ganz completed 26-of-38 pass attempts for 294 yards and two touchdowns in the loss, Nebraska was held to just 79 total rushing yards on 35 carries and more importantly, have shown that they are an undisciplined team by committing an unheard of 14 penalties for 101 yards.
The disturbing statistic is now a consistent trend as the Cornhuskers are averaging 9.2 penalties per game. Ganz also threw his fifth interception of the season and took a crucial sack on a key second down play when he could have thrown the ball away.
The Red Raiders looked like national title contenders by routing the overmatched Kansas State Wildcats 58-28 as quarterback Graham Harrell went 38-for-52 for 454 yards with a whopping six touchdown passes to cover as seven-point favorites in the BetUS Sportsbook. Texas Tech also got rushing touchdowns from Baron Blatch and Graham Harrell.
The Cornhuskers are averaging 410.6 total yards per game, (39th), including 270.4 passing yards per game, (20th) while averaging 33.4 points per contest, (30th). Defensively, Nebraska is allowing 376.2 total yards per game, (83rd) and 26.0 points per contest.
The Red Raiders are second in the nation in total offense, averaging a mind-blowing 583.4 total yards per game and are ranked first in pass offense under Harrell, averaging 439.0 yards per game while also putting up a whopping 48.2 points per game, fifth in the nation.
While the Red Raiders are by no means, a defensive juggernaut, they have used a bend-but-don’t-break defense to hold their opponents to just 18.4 points per game this season, 34th in the country.
Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my analysis and NCAAF Free Picks.
Cornhuskers
Nebraska is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games
Nebraska is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nebraska's last 8 games
Nebraska is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Nebraska is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nebraska's last 7 games on the road
Nebraska is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas Tech
Nebraska is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Texas Tech
Red Raiders
Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas Tech is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
Texas Tech is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nebraska
Texas Tech is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Nebraska
Nebraska Cornhuskers +21½ -110
Texas Tech Red Raiders -21½ -110
Analysis: If you saw last Saturday’s loss to Missouri, you’d know that the Nebraska Cornhuskers couldn’t stop running water if their collective lives depended on it!
I won’t waste time with some long-winded spiel about the outcome of this contest, I’ll let Cornhuskers quarterback Joe Ganz do all the talking for me.
"I'm just sick to my stomach after this game,” Ganz said following his team’s loss to Mizzou. “We better rebound fast, otherwise we're going to get killed again next week."
Simply put, Ganz is right – the Cornhuskers are going to get killed!
Take the Red Raiders to win and cover the high spread.
NCAAF Free Picks: Texas Tech -21½ Points
