NCAA Football Week 5 - SMU Mustangs at Tulane Green Wave

The SMU Mustangs (1-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS), off a couple of frightful beatings under first-year coach June Jones, will hope for better luck on Saturday as they visit the Tulane Green Wave (1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS) in a Conference USA game in NCAA college football that is slated to get underway at 8 PM ET at the Louisiana Superdome (artificial turf) in New Orleans.

Thursday, September 25

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: TULANE -18.5, Total 49

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* SMU has lost 13 of its last 14 games SU

* SMU has lost its last 11 road games SU

* SMU has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total

* TUL has covered five of its last six games

* TUL has lost 11 of its last 16 games SU

* TUL has played four of its last six games UNDER the total

* TUL has covered five of its last six home games

* TUL has lost four of its last six home games SU

* TUL has played four of its last six home games UNDER the total

Also....

* TUL has won and covered five of the last six meetings

The transition for coach June Jones and the SMU players he oversees has not been smooth at all. Justin Willis, the talented QB who filled the starting role last season, was disciplined and punished for off-field activities, and that left Jones handicapped, without an experienced QB to pilot his run 'n shoot. So it's been some growing pains associated with freshman Bo Levi Mitchell, who's thrown some TD's, to be sure (nine) but also an alarming number of interceptions (10 already!). When you can't run the ball (SMU is last nationally in rushing, at 32 yards a game), you are going to put a lot of pressure on your stop unit, and it shows.

SMU ranks dead last in the nation in defense, giving up 531 yards per game. Opponents have averaged 5.4 yards a carry, and the Mustangs have given up 16 TD passes (an NCAA-high) with only two interceptions. They have given up just a shade under 50 ppg to their Division I opponents.

The question here is - can Tulane carry this heavy number?

Maybe, on the basis of its defense. The Green Wave does not seem to have the kind of offensive pop (20 yards per point) that would pull away from people, even weak opponents, but in games against nationally-ranked Alabama and East Carolina, as well as Louisiana-Monroe, has surrendered just 223 yards a game, and they are at least on the positive side of the turnover ledger (+3) while SMU is a woeful -10 against its major college foes.

Even though the Wave clearly misses super runner Matt Forte (now starring with the Chicago Bears), they are getting less mistakes out of QB Kevin Moore. And we have a feeling SMU's defense can make most teams look offensively-potent.

Fundamentals just aren't going to be on SMU's side for a while. So we're going to lay the points with Tulane, the 18.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: TULANE -18.5 **

(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com gives it more than the old college try as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)