NCAA Football Sportsbook: Florida State vs Wake Forest

Florida State Seminoles (4-5 SU, 2-6 ATS) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

Saturday, November 14 - Noon ET
BB&T Field, Winston-Salem, NC

BetUS NCAA Football Sportsbook Odds:  WAKE FOREST -4.5, Total 58

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• FSU has covered one of its last six games
• FSU has lost four of its last six games SU
• FSU has played its last five games OVER the total
• FSU has played five of its last six road games OVER the total
• WAKE has lost four of its last five games SU
• WAKE has won four of its last five home games SU
  
  

Also....

• WAKE has covered the last five meetings
• FSU has won ten of the last 13 meetings SU
• WAKE has covered five of the last six meetings as the home team
• FSU has won five of the last six meetings SU as the home team
  
  

Christian Ponder, who was one of the top NFL prospects at the quarterback position, suffered a right shoulder separation against Clemson that requires season-ending surgery, so the Seminoles will have to go back to the drawing board with E.J. Manuel at QB. At 6'4" and 225 pounds, Manuel certainly possesses the right kind of size to play quarterback, and was a prized catch for FSU, rated one of the top at his position in high school. Still, the learning curve is steep, and the testing ground, especially in that NCAA football sportsbook, isn't always kind.

In terms of experience, Manuel is a stark contrast to Wake Forest's Riley Skinner, who has started all four years at the school, and is the kind of blood-and-guts leader who the Demon Deacons know they can count on. Skinner played last week against Georgia Tech after suffering a concussion the week before, which is not necessarily something we cheer, but inspires lots of confidence in his teammates. He's completed almost 66% of his passes, and he'll be working on a Florida State secondary that has allowed 9.44 yards an attempt, more than anyone in the country.

FSU is in a tough spot, because they are going to have to win this one to have any shot at a bowl. Let's face it - they are not going to beat Florida in the season finale, so wins here and against Maryland are mandatory if the 'Noles want to see any post-season action. Here's the thing - Bobby Bowden's team should have gotten the clarion call at other points of this season, and they haven't always answered.

Wake's been beaten down by a few good rushing teams (Stanford, Clemson, Navy, Georgia Tech) but we wonder if FSU's inconsistent ground attack can do sufficient damage. Somehow Wake coach has had Bowden's number; his team has won three straight in teh series, and covered the last five. The only chance we've given Florida State to pull off upsets rested with Ponder, and now that has been eliminated.

We're going with Wake Forest, the 4.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football sportsbook odds.

JAY'S PLAY:  WAKE FOREST -4.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)