NCAA College Football Free Pick – Utah State at UNLV

The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, (2-10 SU, 1-7 Conf., 5-7 ATS, 4-8 O/U) and Utah State Aggies, (2-10 SU, 2-6 Conf., 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U) each recorded dismal 2-10 straight up records in 2007-08.

Now, one team looks to reach half of that total in their Week One NCAA college football betting.

The Rebels went 1-7 in the Mountain West Conference under head coach Mike Sanford but have several key performers returning from last season, including quarterback Travis Dixon and running back Frank Summers.

The UNLV offense looks like it could be explosive. But Sanford has failed to get his team to live up to its full potential as they ranked last in the conference scoring last season, averaging just over 18 points per game in 2007.

The Aggies could be in for a change if they don’t win more games in 2008 as head coach Brent Guy has recorded a miniscule six wins in three seasons. If the Aggies can’t move the ball on offense, it may not matter how much the defense improves.

UNLV averaged 353.1 total yards of offense but just 18.1 points per game last season, while Utah State averaged just 277.9 total yards of offense and 20.5 points per game last season.

Defensively, UNLV allowed 386.8 yards and 28.5 points per game while Utah State allowed opponents to average: 450.3 total yards and a whopping 33.8 points per game.

Here is a look at the game’s key football trends, followed by my analysis and NCAA college football Free Pick:

The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.

The Aggies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

The Runnin' Rebels are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.

The Runnin' Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

The Over is 8-3 in Aggies last 11 vs. MWC.

The Under is 7-0 in Runnin' Rebels last 7 non-conference games.

The Under is 4-0 in Runnin' Rebels last 4 games in August.

The Under is 5-0 in Runnin' Rebels last 5 vs. WAC.

Utah State +12 ½ -110

UNLV – 12 ½ -110

Over 49 -110

Under 49 -110

Analysis: The best thing bettors can do for this contest is to take the Over as neither one of these teams plays very much defense at all. If I were forced to make a pick on a single team in this matchup, I’d say take the Aggies to cover the spread in this matchup despite being on the road.

NCAAF Free Pick: Over 49 Total Points/Utah State +12½ Points