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posted November 5, 2009 at 14:19 EST in NCAA F Free Picks

College Football Sportsbook - Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois

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NCAA College Football Sportsbook Betting

Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-8 SU, 3-5 ATS) at Northern Illinois Huskies (5-3 SU, 4-3 ATS)

Thursday, November 5 - 8:30 PM ET

BetUS NCAA College Football Sportsbook Odds:  NORTHERN ILLINOIS -20.5, Total 47.5

Here are some of the college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

  • EMU has covered two of its last six games
  • EMU has lost its last eight games SU
  • EMU has played four of its last six games OVER the total
  • EMU has lost its last eight road games SU
  • EMU has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
  • NIU has won five of its last seven games SU
  • NIU has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
  • NIU has won seven of its last ten home games SU

Also....

  • NIU has won seven of the last eight meetings SU
  • The last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
  • EMU has covered five of the last six meetings has the road team
  • NIU has won four of the last five meetings SU as the home team

Last year's meeting was a bummer for EMU fans, as they gained just 259 yards in the shutout loss, despite only a 21-19 deficit in the category of first downs. This has been a rough first season at the helm for Ron English, as he has yet to win, and has taken some awful beatings at the hands of Michigan, Central Michigan and Arkansas, covering just three times in the college football sportsbook.

Eastern Michigan Eagles is actually listed fourth in the pass defense rankings in the NCAA, but that is indeed deceiving. The Eagles are allowing only 146 yards a game through the air, but they have surrendered 7.9 yards an attempt, and there is no other team aside from Tulane in the top fifty with that high a figure.

Also, opponents have been able to run so easily on EMU that there is no need to pass. English's team ranks 120th and last in the country allowing 277 rushing yards a game and 6.4 yards a carry. That is one of the reasons why this team has allowed less than 27 points in a contest only once.

A big blow was the loss of quarterback Andy Schmitt, and there has been instability under him, as might be expected. The Eagles were not doing well even with Schmitt in the lineup, and they were hoping that sophomore Kyle McMahon could come in and provide some production. McMahon threw three touchdown passes in second half garbage tome to get EMU within 63-27 of Arkansas, which was actually a covering effort in the college football sportsbook. One of the problems has been the difficulty of adapting to more of a pro-style offense installed by English and his staff.

Northern Illinois Huskies has found its way on the ground, and ran for 275 yards against Akron. In three of the last four games NIU, which has produced backs like Garrett Wolfe and Michael Turner in recent seasons, has topped 200 yards on the ground. Teams need not put the ball in the air; in fact, Ball State and Army beat them with a combined nine yards passing.
 
We recognize that in ten of the last eleven games in which they were laying double digits, Northern Illinois has failed to cover the number, but this is simply not a good matchup for Eastern Michigan, and we would like to see more from them than to just get a backdoor cover with a backup quarterback who was on his way to redshirting. We're laying the points with NIU, the 20.5-point favorite in the BetUS college football sports book odds.

JAY'S PLAY:  NORTHERN ILLINOIS -20.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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